July 25, 2019, 8:03pm
We’re at it again! The BEA will release its first estimate for 2019Q2 tomorrow at 8:30 EST.
Here’s what major estimates are coming in at:
Atlanta Fed (7/25): 1.3
Moody’s (7/25): 1.6
New York Fed (7/19): 1.41
St. Louis Fed (7/19): 2.9 (wut?)
I’m going to predict 1.8%.
Consumer spending hsa been strong, while net imports and change in private inventories seems to be the major drags. The pace of manufacturing has also been consistently declining.
Some analysis for the rest of the year based on these ranges of Q2 GDP.
At the lower end, if Q2 comes in at 1.3%, Trump would need Q3 and Q4 performances of 4.5 and 4.4 respectively to get a 2019 GDP growth of 2.95 (rounded up to 3%).
At the higher end, if Q2 comes in at 1.8%, Trump would need Q3 and Q4 performances of 4.0 and 3.9 respectively to get a 2019 GDP growth of 2.95 (rounded up to 3%).
Unless some unexpected boom happens, I think it’s going to be a pretty low chance that Trump breaks the magical (in talk radio land) 3% threshold this year.
So, what say all of you? What do you think Q2 is going to come in as?
July 25, 2019, 8:11pm
-.08 Recession is underway.
It’s all that libs have left…hoping for economy to collapse.
With the tax cuts finally having enough time to kick in, it will 5%+ and the deficit will decrease
Or you know tax cuts! Growth! Give it time!
This is based on nothing other than gut feeling and the fact that the past couple of announcements have exceeded expectations, IIRC.
I have 17 and 21 year old kids, some money in the stock market and a little bit in real estate. I definitely would love to see 5% GDP growth.
What did our President predict?
Also, do we still trust the numbers or are they
July 25, 2019, 8:48pm
I’m also gonna go somewhat higher than expectations(not counting St. Louis who is obviously drunk right now). I’ll go 2%. Normally I go with something really close to Moody’s, but they burned me last quarter.
July 25, 2019, 9:18pm
I initially put 2% and stepped back a little bit.
Totally agree, they are hitting something hard at the St. Louis Fed…
July 25, 2019, 9:19pm
Can you point to a “lib” hoping for the economy to collapse?
July 25, 2019, 9:24pm
It’s only options libs have if they want to unseat the pres. Other then that you guys have nothing…you got that…NOTHING!!!
Is that why they took the house?
We were assured for 8 years under Obama that an economy with these numbers was abysmal.
What happened to that 6% GDP we were promised??
Regardless of the EC, Trump will lose the popular vote. Again. So Americans will still reject Trump. Again.
And he didnt win by that very big of a margin in the contested states…
July 25, 2019, 9:40pm
I’m hoping the economy does cool off for few months…and then come roaring back in spring of 2020.
But you guys can’t think pass the next day let alone year from now.
It looks like there is only one person in this thread rooting for a downturn.
It’s this guy:
You should no better than to bite that bait.