We’re at it again! The BEA will release its first estimate for 2019Q2 tomorrow at 8:30 EST.
Here’s what major estimates are coming in at:
Atlanta Fed (7/25): 1.3
Moody’s (7/25): 1.6
New York Fed (7/19): 1.41
St. Louis Fed (7/19): 2.9 (wut?)
I’m going to predict 1.8%.
Consumer spending hsa been strong, while net imports and change in private inventories seems to be the major drags. The pace of manufacturing has also been consistently declining.
Some analysis for the rest of the year based on these ranges of Q2 GDP.
At the lower end, if Q2 comes in at 1.3%, Trump would need Q3 and Q4 performances of 4.5 and 4.4 respectively to get a 2019 GDP growth of 2.95 (rounded up to 3%).
At the higher end, if Q2 comes in at 1.8%, Trump would need Q3 and Q4 performances of 4.0 and 3.9 respectively to get a 2019 GDP growth of 2.95 (rounded up to 3%).
Unless some unexpected boom happens, I think it’s going to be a pretty low chance that Trump breaks the magical (in talk radio land) 3% threshold this year.
So, what say all of you? What do you think Q2 is going to come in as?
I’m also gonna go somewhat higher than expectations(not counting St. Louis who is obviously drunk right now). I’ll go 2%. Normally I go with something really close to Moody’s, but they burned me last quarter.