Actually, generally speaking, past behavior is a very good indicator of future behavior.
Backfitting data does not work.
176 evs for biden should tell you that.
Allan
The method is pretty cut and dried. He uses the candidates performance in his party’s primaries and down grades a candidate if his party has held the WH for 8 years or more. It\s all a matter of public record.
And Biden is predicted to get 176 ev proves that model does not work.
Allan
His goal is to predict the winner in the electoral college. The break down of ec votes is irrelevant.
It’s all about the evs.
We will just have to agree to disagree on this point.
Allan
If Trump is reelected, Norpoth was right. If he’s not, Norpoth was wrong. He may be wrong. We’ll have to wait and see.
He’s correct far more often than his lib critics however. What was that percentage again? 93 percent? 
No… 
92.59% He hit 25 of the last 27 elections going back to 1912.
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That’s darn good in my book.
Far better than anyone else who tries to predict elections.
Reports of robust absentee and early voting by women, minorities, youth and 1st time voters. FEC money disclosures. Size of protests. Actions and demeanor of the candidates.
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I have to admit, “predicting” a bunch of elections that already happened is super amazing.
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great time to add a 3rd senator for each stateto be appointed by the legislatures too
states have no power in the federal government. we took it from them with the 17th amendment. now we have a house of representatives, and a house of super representatives.
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seems likely
That’s not an accurate way to think about stochastic processes.
You can predict that a die is most likely to come up 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6, but sometimes you do roll a 1. It doesn’t mean your prediction was wrong.
That’s not what he is predicting. He is predicting that Trump will win the presidency. He either will or he won’t.
Okay, if he’s not predicting this as a stochastic process then I would love to see his explanation for how he gets to 176 electoral votes for Biden. This would require Biden losing the entire blue wall, and Nevada, and Virginia, and Colorado, and New Mexico, and New Hampshire. Then you have to toss in another 10 electoral votes on top of even that, such as Oregon and Delaware, or Maryland. Do you really think that’s going to happen?
If he had just said his model predicts Trump is going to win that would be one thing, but the claim of 176 electoral votes for Biden makes his prediction, and therefore his model, pure rubbish.
