Electoral college predictions

[biggestal99]

@BillBrown

Not my prediction. It’s the prediction of Prof. Helmut Norpoth who called the 2016 election for Trump.
His primary model has been 93% accurate going back to the presidential election of 1912.

I wish it was your prediction.

You lose for sure.

176?

Yikes.

Allan

[JimmyC]

Since 1912? Dude’s been predicting for a long time

[BillBrown]

@JimmyC

Since 1912? Dude’s been predicting for a long time

He’s applied his model back to the election of 1912.

[AmusedObserver]

@BillBrown

Not my prediction. It’s the prediction of Prof. Helmut Norpoth who called the 2016 election for Trump.
His primary model has been 93% accurate going back to the presidential election of 1912.

I wonder if the good professor expects Trump to flip Connecticut? Oregon? Rhode Island and Delaware?

Because for his prediction to be accurate, you need to do one of those in addition to Trump winning the entire blue wall, including Minnesota, and Colorado and New Mexico and Virginia and New Hampshire.

[AmusedObserver]

@Bill.in.PA

CNN and the mainstream media have become informercials for the Democratic Party. They have zero credibility in my book.

Zerohedge was banned from Twitter for speaking the truth about the dangers of coronavirus when the mainstream media was claiming that the flu was a lot more dangerous and the virus was a distraction from impeachment. Twitter eventually reinstated them and admitted their mistake months later.

That is speaking truth to power.

Zero Hedge are crackpots. It really is just that simple.

You should not choose to use them as a source of information, unless you’re just looking to support some questionable opinions.

[DOLOOP]

@AmusedObserver

@Bill.in.PA

CNN and the mainstream media have become informercials for the Democratic Party. They have zero credibility in my book.

Zerohedge was banned from Twitter for speaking the truth about the dangers of coronavirus when the mainstream media was claiming that the flu was a lot more dangerous and the virus was a distraction from impeachment. Twitter eventually reinstated them and admitted their mistake months later.

That is speaking truth to power.

Zero Hedge are crackpots. It really is just that simple.

You should not choose to use them as a source of information, unless you’re just looking to support some questionable opinions.

It’s like choosing to use RT instead of quoting the GRU directly.

But, if that’s what it takes to sleep at night…

[Publius]

@RTchoke

Flip the demographics of each state and tell me you are OK with the popular vote.

There is a reason for the electoral college.

Which is nothing like what you apparently think it is.

[Publius]

Yup. At the time, just about every state was a coastal state, and there was nothing west of the Mississippi. New York and CA dominating the flyover country was not a concern.

[WCD9973]

This doesn’t show you what you think it does.

The first is showing you difference between RCP and Actual.

The 2nd is showing you difference between RCP and Trafalgar.

For this to be useful at al you would need to compare Trafalgar in 2016 to final result then Trafalgar now.

Also, picking RCP avg in Oct 30th 2016 to Oct 30th now is wrong as well. Last time the election was Nov 7th, this year is Nov 3rd.
So you should be looking at RCP avg in Nov 3rd of 2016 which was already showing you movement (For instance, AZ was trump plus 2.5 on Nov 3 2016)

[Smyrna]

@WCD9973

showing you movement

That’s sheople food. There was no “movement”. It was a pollster who knew they were wrong but was being paid to print this bull feces and who was now in professional CYA mode.

You’re going to witness this exact same thing, this time around too.

[WuWei]

@once-ler

Nobody is putting their trust in the polls only.

What else are you using?

[Paul_Thomson]

@biggestal99

Michigan. If trump takes that, it will be an upset of historical proportions.

Trump has had four years of practice creating upsets of historical proportion hair-on-fire every day. 400 EC votes would be a walk in the park.

[fallenturtle]

@Steel-W0LF

What the leftists have been referring to as tyranny of the minority is strictly people who want the constitution followed to prevent tyranny of the majority.

That’s ■■■■■■■■■ The electoral college is not what keeps the “tyranny of the majority” in check… we have the Senate which gives all states equal power to make sure the less populace states get a say and we have rules that require a super majority to get certain things passed.

[biggestal99]

@Paul_Thomson

Trump has had four years of practice creating upsets of historical proportion hair-on-fire every day. 400 EC votes would be a walk in the park.

We shall see on Tuesday, when Biden takes Michigan quite easily.

Allan

[Samm]

@Scratch

And Cons won’t??

Nope. That’s not a con thing.

[Steel-W0LF]

@fallenturtle

@Steel-W0LF

What the leftists have been referring to as tyranny of the minority is strictly people who want the constitution followed to prevent tyranny of the majority.

That’s ■■■■■■■■■ The electoral college is not what keeps the “tyranny of the majority” in check… we have the Senate which gives all states equal power to make sure the less populace states get a say and we have rules that require a super majority to get certain things passed.

That is partly incorrect since the EC is a combination of the number of representatives anD the number of senators.

[fallenturtle]

@Steel-W0LF

@fallenturtle

@Steel-W0LF

What the leftists have been referring to as tyranny of the minority is strictly people who want the constitution followed to prevent tyranny of the majority.

That’s ■■■■■■■■■ The electoral college is not what keeps the “tyranny of the majority” in check… we have the Senate which gives all states equal power to make sure the less populace states get a say and we have rules that require a super majority to get certain things passed.

That is partly incorrect since the EC is a combination of the number of representatives anD the number of senators.

How does that make it partially incorrect?

[Steel-W0LF]

@fallenturtle

@Steel-W0LF

@fallenturtle

@Steel-W0LF

What the leftists have been referring to as tyranny of the minority is strictly people who want the constitution followed to prevent tyranny of the majority.

That’s ■■■■■■■■■ The electoral college is not what keeps the “tyranny of the majority” in check… we have the Senate which gives all states equal power to make sure the less populace states get a say and we have rules that require a super majority to get certain things passed.

That is partly incorrect since the EC is a combination of the number of representatives anD the number of senators.

How does that make it partially incorrect?

Because. As you say, the senate is there to put all the states on equal footing.

The electoral college is adding up a state’s representatives an senators. So it’s quite literally a blending of the two. Making it partly based on population, and partly based on states being equal.

[biggestal99]

@BillBrown

He’s applied his model back to the election of 1912

Backfitted. That’s not a very successful way of predicting future events.

Allan