Sure they do. All the time. The opinions of people who buy and sell stocks make the market go up or down. Especially for the short term, it doesn’t matter if their opinions are correct or not.
People will sell stock if the think a recession is coming. That doesn’t always mean a recession is coming.
IMO China been undermining our economy through multiple levels.
Whether it’s stealing our manufacturing base to theft of technology to even yes to some extent currency manipulation…which might be over blown but don’t know enough about that to discuss.
But what I can see and know is when we lose our manufacturing we lose the wealth that manufacturing creates…and I’m not talking about the good itself but through the process of making those goods. The income of labor market filters through our entire economic structure/system.
Same theory of infrastructure, for every dollar our goverment spends that wealth filters through our entire system.
The yields are inverted because people dont like the long term outlook due to trade policies. Long term and shirt term Yields dont just magically invert arbitrarily
Hence the qualifier of opinions with basis in fact versus on emotion. No quality investor or trader worth their salt relies on “gut” or emotion only without factual data supporting their conclusions. Even if their conclusions end up inaccurate. Conflating the two is disingenuous in my opinion.
In a world of chicken bones and Ouija boards, inverted yield curves have pretty good predictive power. I wouldn’t discount what’s going on because of the statements of one guy.
Follow the feds interest rates and companies quarterly results, the rest is just show. The market is correcting and it will be followed by housing which has already started. When interest rates rise companies borrow less and individuals are more skeptical in buying homes as interest rates rise.
We are feeling it in Seattle the house prices rose way to fast and are now coming down sharply. Imho they need to come down 20%-30% more. The rise in the last 4 years was crazy around 7% a year increase. People were buying homes in the hood for 600k thinking the prices would rise forever.