IMO, there is no reason to believe it will be much different than SC with only Biden and Sanders earning delegates. Bernie winning a few along the coast and a few in Birmingham/Montgomery and 3 or 4 from his share statewide.
Along with the establishment candidate and Bernie, I would think Warren would do okay here. No particular reason, just “gut”.
I ask myself, at this point, why would anyone vote for Bloomberg? He was polling well here, but after SC I don’t think he makes the 15% cut anywhere.
2M early votes already cast. I don’t see a lot of reason to assume Biden gets many of them. His campaign was in the toilet when they were cast. There were about 5M votes in 2016, likely closer to 6 this time. So ⅓ are in the bag likely with Bernie having most and Buttigieg, Warren and Bloomberg also. I think Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg and Biden all get delegates here, and no-one else meets the 15% threshold. Biggest question to me is, in how many districts can Biden overcome what I think is an early voting massacre for him and in how many will Buttigieg lose his 15%?
Polling suggests everyone except Sanders and Warren are struggling to meet the 15% threshold. Buttigieg dropping out will help Biden get there and probably surpass Warren for 2nd place,
Biden isn’t Clinton and Bernie is not a protest vote. Biden and Bernie alone for delegates and Biden will eek out a win.
Buttigieg dropping out helps both Biden and Warren here. Likely about a 3 way tie with Warren slightly ahead of Sanders and Biden.
How many of Klobuchar’s voters will switch to Biden now that he has some chance and she does not? Enough I think to propel Bernie ahead of her but not Biden, creating another 3 way tie with Sanders slightly ahead of Klobuchar and Biden. Sanders, Klobuchar and Biden win delegates.
Only Biden and Bernie win delegates here. Biden with the win, but not as big as SC.
Will Bernie make the 15% threshold? He won here in 2016. Biden is not Hillary and Bernie is not a protest vote. Bloomberg was polling well here, but why bother when Biden is again viable? 50-30 Biden with no-one else making the cut.
This is one state where Warren polls better than Bernie, likely because she’s the socialist candidate for those who can’t even admit to themselves that they are socialists. Biden wins here, 55-24-16
700k early votes cast. Most all when Biden was in the crapper. Bloomberg, Biden and Warren likely suck up about 55% of it and Bernie 40%. How much of a share of the remaining vote does Bloomberg lose to Biden? Will it be enough to get passed what is an apparent early lead for Bernie? TX isn’t NV… where will the hispanic vote land? Bernie in a squeaker over Biden, with Bloomberg winning a few odd delegates, but not making the 15% threshold statewide.
Odd one. Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Warren poll well. Biden does not. How much of Buttigiegs support goes to Biden? How much to Warren? How much gets shaved off Bloomberg to Biden? Enough I think to get him to 2nd, but in a jumble. Bernie wins.
Should be Biden country, and after SC maybe it will be again. Same questions abound here. Howc much of Buttigiegs support goes to Biden, and how much gets shaved off Bloomberg? A lot I think. Enough for Biden to win. 50-30 with no-one else making the threshold except in an odd congressional district or two.
Who cares (mostly Warren): It may matter in Milwaukee
Is a 122 delegate lead enough for Bernie? No. Biden catches him before April. Next week: ID, MI, MS, MO, ND, WA. Maybe Bernie wins WA and gets his share from MI, but not likely to do well in the others. Then AZ, FL, IL and OH… maybe AZ? Then GA. Then AK, HI, and LA. He doesn’t have a favorable schedule again until WI on April 7, and on April 28 only CT, RI and NY seem doable. Look for WI on April 7 to be a bloodbath. It will be a must win for Bernie. If he doesn’t win there, Biden coasts to a victory the rest of the way. If Bernie wins WI, NY will make the WI bloodbath look like they were in peace talks.