I know at times I come across as a bit of a dick but all sarcasm and joking apart I do enjoy reading these poll posts.
A new one just came in for FL13. I won’t add it yet, but it may be another possible flip R->D
Surprisingly we go another day post convention with no new polls of note.
But, here is another data point which is very pro Kamala.
Voter registrations since she announced in key Democratic groups is exploding.
Here is where the “vibes” is showing up - Intensity.
Trump has lost all of his edge and isn’t gaining support, nor driving the same enthusiasm he did in 2016 and 2020.
Kamala is riding a serious wave of momentum and energy.
Are Pollsters reflecting this in their models? I doubt it. Which could mean polls underestimate Kamala support.
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how many newly registered illegals?
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I don’t know as Maria Bartiromo.
fever dreams
The conventions in 2020 were in August
When the math don’t compute, grasp for justifications.
That explains nothing relative to the DEM groups. And REPs should look stronger in 2024 week of their convention v 2020 right?
I love it 
fever dream exuberance. Comparing convention week this year with a random week in the summer of 2020 is apples and oranges.
Wake up dude.
Convention week this year was August 19th not July 21st.
July 21st was exuberance week. Dumping Biden is all you got got. Harris is not popular. She was the lowest rated VP in the history of checking on them. She’s never gotten one vote in any primary and she can’t hide forever. Every time she opens her mouth she loses support.
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Wow. Ok, I see how this goes. It’s not the convention as you stated it was but exuberance week?
I guess you stand corrected for the 4th? 5th time?
She is winning. Your guy is losing. Man up.
You’ve never proven me wrong, you have proven yourself bad at math.
If Trump wins the states he is currently leading in, he wins. So no, she’s not winning.
The following races are the races that all of the pundit sites (Sabato, Silver, Cook, DDHQ and Rotherberg) agree either will flip or stand the greatest chance of flipping:
Dem to GOP (Total gains: GOP+5)
NC-1/R+1 District; PA-8/R+4 District; NC-6/Redistricting;
NC-13/Redistricting; NC-14/Redistricting
GOP to Dem (Total gains: Dem+4)
NY-17/D+3 District; LA-6/Redistricting; AL-2/Redistricting;
NY-22/D+5 District
Note: In all other contested districts all of the pundit sites rate the remaining races toss ups or give a slight edge to the incumbent party.
Other House seats with the opportunity to flip (by party demographics) open seat most vulnerable
Contested (R1 to D1 or Incumbent underwater)
CA13(R)…CA27(R)…CO08(D)…MI07(D)…NM02(D)…OR05(R)
MI08(D)…OH13(D)…PA07(D)…WA08(D)…ME02(D)…OH09(D)
PA17(D)…NJ07(R)…NY19(R)…AK01(D)…CA22(R)…NY04(R)
CA45(R)…MN02(D)…NV03(D)…NH01(D)…MI03(D)…KS03(D)
VA07(D)…TX15(R)…PA01(R)…PA10(R)…WA03(D)
11R, 16D Most Vulnerable: 7R, 9D
Competitive R2-R4 and D2-D4
CA47(D)…AZ01(R)…OH01(D)…VA02(R)…AZ06(R)…CA41(R)
IA03(R)…WI03(R)…CA49(D)…MD06(D)…NV01(D)…NH02(D)
CT05(D)…IL13(D)…IN01(D)…NY18(D)…OR06(D)…TX28(D)
NV04(D)…NE02(R)…OR04(D)…CA03(R)…CA40(R)…IA01(R)
NY01(R)…WI01(R)…MI10(R)…GA02(D)…TX34(D)
13R, 16D Most Vulnerable: 4R, 0DFL13(R)
Note: Vulnerability is based on party demographics for the district >+2 underwater or recent redistricting changes making the seat more competitive with a party demographic switch.
Some of this is supported by polling now, but the polls are mostly candidate internal polls.
Senate races are largely solidifying with the GOP ending up with 51 seats.
Latest Senate Math: MT slipping away from Democrats would be the 51st seat.
Contested (lead is >0 but <4, 3 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
None
Competitive (lead is >3i w/50 but <7, 6 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
MT: Sheehy(R) up 5 has broken 50% in three polls
MI: Slotkin(D) up 4+ has not broken 50% in any poll
OH: Brown(D) up 5 has broken 50% in two polls
FL: Scott(R) up 5+ pts has not broken 50% in any poll
NJ: Kim(D) up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll
MD: Alsobrooks up 6 has not broken 50% in any poll
Note: MT and AZ move from contested to competitive
Note: MD is tied, the polls showing Alsobrooks leading are all over 2 months old
Marginal (leading candidate up >6i w/50 but <9, 8 if incumbent w/1 poll over 50)
TX: Cruz(R) up 7+ has broken 50% in two polls
PA: Casey(D) up 7+ has broken 50% in two polls
AZ: Gallego(D) up 8+ has broken 50% in one poll
Note: NV moves off the list
Note: TX back on Marginal list
Note: WI lead is only 6+, but over 50% in 9 polls
Note: Bold denotes a possible flip
GOP must hold FL and TX and take any other seat for an outright majority. If Trump wins, they need only hold FL and TX
DEMs must hold all of their seats plus take FL or TX to keep a majority, or all except FL and TX if Harris wins
Note: If the Presidential race is tied, Trump will become President, but if the Senate is in the balance (50/50) Democrats could make Harris or Walz VP in order to hold the Senate.
Not sure he is ready to handle that fact yet.
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Electoral Template. Change to 2-way polling. The race has tightened post DNC and polls reflect it. Mostly they remain steady but as older polls drop off Harris average increases.
Contested states (lead is >0 but <4 and leader (over 3 pts) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
WI: Harris up 1+ has broken 50% in two polls
MI: Harris up 2+ has broken 50% in two polls
PA: Harris up <1 has broken 50% in three polls
GA: Tie Both have broken 50% in one poll
AZ: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
NC: Trump up <1 has broken 50% in one poll
NV: Trump up <1 has not broken 50% in any poll
Note: Harris has broken 50% in two AZ polls
Note: Harris has broken 50% in one poll in NV
Note: Trump has broken 50% in one poll in WI
Competitive (lead is >3 but <7 and leader (over 6) has broken 50% in fewer than 2 polls)
VA: Harris up 4 has not broken 50% in any poll
NH: Harris up 5 has broken 50% in three polls.
FL: Trump up 6+ has broken 50% in one poll
Marginal (lead is >6 but <9 and leader (over 8) has broken 50% in fewer than 3 polls)
MN: Harris up 8 has broken 50% in two polls
OH: Trump up 8+ has broken 50% in two polls
*Note: This data includes 2-way polling since RFK has now dropped out.
Note: If Harris wins the states she is currently leading plus NE2 she wins.
If you look at where the race was in 2020… Trump is in a good place
Yes, they are already included in the averages
I’d say if the election were to be held tomorrow, Harris would win and maybe do so comfortably.
However, if you’re a Trump supporter, a big solace is that he overperformed polling in both 2016 and 2020.
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