And it is not just the polls.
Clearly Trump going from “I’m not doing the ABC debate” to “Let’s do three debates” is a reflection that he and his team KNOWS they are losing the race right now and must shake things up.
On every measure this has become +Harris race and will remain that way or grow through the convention.
Harris has not made one wrong move.
clearly NOT the #1 pollster
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/rcp-pollster-scorecard/
and clearly not one of the most accurate. They did good in 2022. Other than tht they pretty much suck. Of pollsterss who poll in more than 15 states Emerson clearly has the best track record over time.
I have outsourced this to Nate Silver, but the criteria are impeccable, so yes one of the best.
RCP is a joke. it is a right wing site with low credibility.
And if you don’t realize that RCP is pulling your chain, you might end up really disappointed.
silver is a leftist troll with no credibility of his own.
as I said, they did good in 2022. Historically they are not even top 5. Their average error is 4.2 and it favors democrats 76% of the time. That’s actually not bad compared to most. Emerson however has an average error of 3.1 and is 50/50 on the errors.
look at his numbers you just posted
NYT/Siena Bias D+1 A+
Emerson Bias D+0.3 A-
apparently the more you favor “D” the higher you rate.
your chain is definitely getting yanked
I don’t know what to tell you man.
Your guy is losing. Badly. If it trends like this another 3 weeks the race is over and we are talking mandate or landslide.
Keep the dream alive at your embarrassment and peril.
what is happening is exactly what was expected to be happening and as I projected would be happening. Democrats are experiencing a lot of irrational exuberance at dumping Biden. It won’t last. When its run its course the race will bounce back to a horse race which either candidate could win. The key for Harris will be PA, WI and MI she can’t win without them. For Trump, NV, AZ and GA. And if each of them win those, then the final arbiter will be NE2.
I should hope so. If you ever start agreeing with me, I will have to start reconsidering my positions. 
Palin ignored Peltola completely and campaigned hard against Begich. That pissed off Begich supporters so much that a large percentage of them selected Peltola as their second choice over Palin. Palin lost because she was stupid. Had she cooperated with Begich instead of trying to diminish him, she would have won handily.
It actually favors Republicans. All they have to do is cooperate with each other and they would never lose an election again. This go-around Dahlstrom and Begich appear to be doing just that (“If you don’t want to vote for me over them, vote me as your second choice.”) There are almost twice as many Republicans than Democrats, but Republicans usually end up splitting the conservative vote which allows Democrats to win a plurality of votes to be elected. Preference voting should eliminate the split vote problem for Republicans.
Well, except for selecting Walz as her running mate.
Actually, she hasn’t really made any moves other than that one. All she has done is read speeches written for her by her handlers. The campaign won’t really get underway until the first debate.
peltola will win in November.
sorry to break it to you, Samm.
Allan
She gave Biden the room and time to make his own decision about his candidacy, and
She earned his support and endorsement.
She announced her candidacy immediately, and
She coalesced the party around her remarkably quickly.
She earned the endorsements of all the important DEM voices, and
She raised close to a half billion dollars in 3 weeks.
She set and followed an aggressive and relentless campaign schedule, and
She focused on middle class issues and not identity issues.
She avoided the media and focused on telling her story on her terms, and
She delayed presenting her policy platform and focused on vibes and enthusiasm.
She adopted a happy warrior and advocate persona on the campaign trail, and
She dinged Trump and JD in funny and accurate and disarming ways.
She went against conventional wisdom and picked Walz, and
She showed that she is in this race to win and to govern.
And all of it has worked, flawlessly.
Biden was down 3-4% and probably more like 5-7%
Harris is up 2-3% and probably more like 4-5%
PA/MI/WI are solidly in the Blue column, AZ/NV likely and NC/GA trending Blue.
Yes, the campaign has started and it couldn’t be better for DEMs.
I expect the Convention will add energy and enthusiasm. I expect they will put on a brilliant show, that is pitch perfect for the moment - about the middle class, about unity, about a return to what has made America America. I expect USA! chants. I expect she will show dignity and respect for all Americans, even MAGA.
And I expect the race will be largely over before the debate on 9/10.
Your confidence reveals your ignorance.
For those of you who are into polls and support Trump, if Harris continues to improve in the polls at what point do you stop calling this a honeymoon bump and accept that she presents a real danger to Trump not getting elected?
that poll is not new. It was conducted even before Walz was selected.
Pure exuberance mixed with people thinking their guy would get chosen… mostly, their guy did not get chosen.
Its says the poll was conducted Aug 5th-9th.
And from the Fox News article “ The polls were conducted slightly before and mostly after the vice president on Tuesday announced Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate on the Democrats’ 2024 ticket”.
Though it will be interesting to see if the stolen valor issues swirling around Walz impact future polling.
Did you bother listening to the commentary?
Here’s a link to polling. 7/22-7/24 Fox News. PA Tied, WI Trump +1. Sound familiar?
If that poll was conducted 8/5-8/9. It shows ZERO movement in the last 2 weeks
