As noted in another thread, the number of new cases in New York City appeared to peak few days ago. As of April 2 the number of deaths has also plummeted, although that may be a result of delays in reporting.
https://www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid/covid-19-data.page
If the data newest data prove to be even close to the final values, a rapid drop in deaths may indicate that widespread use of new drugs is already saving lives and helping to end the epidemic.
Did you read that page?
On Mar 31, right when it looks like on the graph that new cases “peaked”, NYC changed how they started counting new cases which is causing a lag in reported numbers.
Therefore, we don’t know if any peak has truly happened.
It’s right there in your link.
Yes, there is some confusion in as a result in the change in reporting for the number of cases.
There is no mention of a change in the reporting of the number of deaths, but the new numbers may be incomplete.
When it is important to be accurate and consistent we get mush.
Yes, I see no reason for city officials to change the method of reporting just when looking at trends is so important.
The number of new cases in New Jersey is still going up, but rate of growth appears to be slowing. That is not very reassuring since New Jersey has be shut down since March 16, and the benefits should be apparent in the number of new cases by now.
It is important to have accurate numbers but many places are in sheer firefighting mode right now.
When actual cases truly begin to dip, we will know it.
It’s going to take more than 1-2 weeks of doing this to see real effects.
People really have to learn to be patient. These things take time.
The curve won’t bend on a faster timetable just because we have attention spans the size of gnats and expect all our crises to wind down in the space of a 48 minute TV episode.
I would rather see incomplete reporting from hot spots that cannot get the tally done.
That would be better data.
I’ve got a question that I can’t seem to figure out. About a month ago this country had around 300 deaths. We now have over 7000. Are we to expect the same amount of deaths over the next month? Or roughly 20 times that amount?
All I have to say is let’s not get stupid. We need to keep hunkering down until it’s completely passed. Let’s NOT upon hearing of cases declining start thinking we’re all good and immediately start going back to life as normal.
Yes.
…
Now you’ve done it. You’ll upset some folks with that.
I strongly second that! 
Forgot to add Blackface pro-baby killing racist virginia governor
I have and continue to hope that our efforts and sprawl would trend better than Italy.
IMO the worst case is another two weeks of 1000-2000 fatalities per day before it drops nationally.
In Pittsburgh we had our 3rd fatality after almost two weeks of zero and this was a woman over 90.
Maybe it will break sooner. Nobody knows and following the trends of other nations is not certain either.
Thursday I was optimistic. Friday numbers crushed that a bit.
noted for next time!
1.5-1.6 million is less than half of one per cent.
Wasn’t the task force estimating that these would eventually reach between 100,000 and 200,000…and that’s with the kind of social restrictions we have now?
Give it time. Our state (VA) and several others aren’t projected to peak until mid-May. I don’t think anywhere in the US has reached peak infections yet. But if the curve continues to look like Italy, the final number could be very ugly.
Yes. But what I don’t understand are the numbers of recovered, died, or otherwise cases where they have been resolved compared to the confirmed total. Over 300k cases, 14k recovered and over 8k died. All of the other cases are still pending? At some point will we see a smaller death rate than 35% of resolved cases?
Nobody would be upset about that.
Knock it off.
