My view is the reported success of the drug treatments for COVID-19 is a game changer. Preliminary data is showing no intubations (= no need for ventilators) in a sample of 72 patients:
“I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic. I’m very serious,” Smith, an infectious disease specialist . . .
Lockdowns have been necessary to prevent the collapse of the medical system and likelihood of huge numbers of deaths as the number of cases increases. If low-cost effective treatment is possible, then number of cases requiring ventilators will be greatly decreased and vast majority of patients may not require in-patient care.
The widespread use of the new drug treatment has just started; it will take two or three weeks to see the full benefits in reduced death rates and ventilator requirements. If the data is promising, then then it means that COVID-19’s effect on the nation is more like that of seasonal flu and widespread lockdowns and quarantines may not be necessary. Late April or Early May for an end to lockdowns appears to be possible under this scenario.
The longer term solution is a vaccine, and there is good progress on that as well:
Do you think an end to widespread lockdowns in May is reasonable?
What are the implications for the apparent success of drug treatments?