Could lockdowns end in May?

My view is the reported success of the drug treatments for COVID-19 is a game changer. Preliminary data is showing no intubations (= no need for ventilators) in a sample of 72 patients:

“I think this is the beginning of the end of the pandemic. I’m very serious,” Smith, an infectious disease specialist . . .

Lockdowns have been necessary to prevent the collapse of the medical system and likelihood of huge numbers of deaths as the number of cases increases. If low-cost effective treatment is possible, then number of cases requiring ventilators will be greatly decreased and vast majority of patients may not require in-patient care.

The widespread use of the new drug treatment has just started; it will take two or three weeks to see the full benefits in reduced death rates and ventilator requirements. If the data is promising, then then it means that COVID-19’s effect on the nation is more like that of seasonal flu and widespread lockdowns and quarantines may not be necessary. Late April or Early May for an end to lockdowns appears to be possible under this scenario.

The longer term solution is a vaccine, and there is good progress on that as well:

Do you think an end to widespread lockdowns in May is reasonable?

What are the implications for the apparent success of drug treatments?

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This probably could have gone in your other thread.

The question is very specific here about the implications of recent news.

Here is a link to a related thread for reference:

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I think it looks very hopeful myself.

I think we will see Lock downs as they are now ending in Mid May. I think for myself, I will continue to do the grocery shopping and keeping my wife more protected as she is at risk…But I think by Mid May in most states it will be lifted.

I agree. Is that a 1st for us? :thinking:

Oh man if Pitt scientists developed the Coronavirus vaccine between this and Jonas Salk we’re never gonna hear the ■■■■■■■ end of it.

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No…It’s not…maybe in more recent years Gooddad…but there was a time when we agreed on quite a bit. But it is good to be in agreement on something like this. LOL :wink:

:grinning: :+1:


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No I will give you guys many high five :raised_hand_with_fingers_splayed:’s… I read the article sounds very promising.

All over national news. One faculty researcher had a big head start with lots of recent related virus work.

It would be very nice indeed.

To answer the question yes. Not everywhere NY, FL, NJ, CT, MI, LA exception.

We should be discussing how this happens. We will need to keep group activities on hold longer and ramp them up.

My state is projected to be peaking mid-May to early June, and tests are hard to come by. I think it’ll be a lot longer than that, at least until testing is universally available.

You can’t get a test right now unless you have both fever and shortness of breath. A lot of people have less severe symptoms and can easily spread it. That’s a big problem.

Yeah it’s definitely an advantage living in this town during a pandemic. There’s a hospital every six blocks and UPMC is one of the top medical systems on the planet.

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Moderna is ahead of UPMC as far as trials go but they skipped animal testing.

They’ll end progressively with expanded testing after then slope of the curve on the downward ride at least matches the slope of the rise.

There is no longer a shortage of tests. We’ve now tested about 1.5-1.6 million Americans and that number continues to rise.

The areas hit hardest are getting them first and in the largest quantities on a sliding scale.

We have none locally but the counties that have confirmed cases have them in abundance.

There may still be some distributions issue but even here we’re expecting the serum tests arriving next week.


Multiple groups working in parallel increases the chances that a safe vaccine will be available quickly. It’s all good.