Coronavirus Thread Political II

[Konssurvative1]

And as of Friday our death rate was actually falling. From 1.6 at the start of the week to 1.2 now. And it looks like west coast daily case rates are falling.

[tnt]

@NickN

Give it time, America’s recovery from the virus is happening nonetheless.

Recovery? The damage is just starting.

[SixFoot]

Did the CDC take the weekend off?

They haven’t updated the numbers on their site since Friday.

[Camp]

Good perspective.

[Munimula1]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-northkorea-idUSKBN2180YX
What do you make of this?

[tnt]

@SixFoot

Did the CDC take the weekend off?

They haven’t updated the numbers on their site since Friday.

Sounds about right.

[JayJay]

@Samm

@Cynic

Thanks for explaining exactly why Trump thinking it was the only solution that was needed was a utter failing until it was too late.

Your political blindness is astounding. The virus was here before we knew it was here, so shutting down international travel was never going to stop it from getting here. But it greatly slowed the import of new cases from abroad. Had he not done that, we almost certainly would be swamped with new domestic cases. Flatten the curve is much more than just a slogan.

Travel bans, especially ones as incomplete as Trump’s was, have marginal effect once enough people are infected to begin community spread.

The community spread effects dominate. You can do the math on this.

By the time Trump put his travel ban down, there were likely at least nine different nucleation sites for community spread.

Travel bans buy you a little time, at best.

[JayJay]

@Konssurvative1

And as of Friday our death rate was actually falling. From 1.6 at the start of the week to 1.2 now. And it looks like west coast daily case rates are falling.

Less than 2% of known cases have resolved.

And this is week one of the exponential climb.

If in a few weeks it stays steady/falls we can celebrate…a little bit.

Way too early to do that now.

[Konssurvative1]

Yeah…i follow the Johns Hopkins site map…because it updates day and night.

[JayJay]

@WuWei

@FloridaYankee

@WuWei

19 million, up 4 million from the previous year.

180,000 hospitalizations

10,000 deaths

This flu season.

And with a 2% mortality rate similar to covid that would be 380,000 deaths.

Editing to add, it looks like we are going to be closer to one percent, so half of that, or 190,000 with the same number of cases as this year’s flu. I was wrong in the 300 times more deadly stuff, not sure what happened.

We don’t have 190k flu deaths a year.

What happened was the media. It was too early. Don’t blame yourself.

He didn’t say we have 190,000 flu deaths a year.

[SixFoot]

@Konssurvative1

Yeah…i follow the Johns Hopkins site map…because it updates day and night.

I’m happy for the CDC that they’re able to take weekends off.

[JayJay]

@GWH

Said it before, but we won’t really know the damage done by Chinese Virus until 2021-2022. Total number of deaths in US in 2018 was 2,839,205. The rate in 2019 was 8.782 per thousand, an increase from 2018 of 1.12%. If we see an increase again in 2020 of around 1%, then the Chinese Virus will have had little effect overall. In other words, those with compromised immune systems, elderly, may have died anyway. Testing positive for Chinese Virus just recategorized the cause of death.

They likely wouldn’t have all died in a very short period of time.

We know that because they don’t.

It didn’t just “recategorize”…it compressed timelines.

[JayJay]

@Snow96

@JayJay

This is disingenuous because the arguments for what Trump is being taken to task for are NOT that he did nothing, but that what he did was woefully incomplete and what he’s doing now should have been started at least a month ago.

So now we are going to take a bigger hit than we had to.

I know you’ve been reading this thread. I know you know this is the argument.

And right now the “he should have acted a month ago” is with 20/20 hingsight.

Again, January/Feb he started restricict movement to/from restricted areas and congress and media was throwing a fit.

It’s not 20/20 hindsight.

People who know how pandemics spread were warning him.

His intelligence services were warning him.

How pandemics grow is not some new thing…we’ve known for a century at least how it works.

Trump’s people had the information he needed to act. Problem was they weren’t getting his engagement on it.

You’re honestly going to sit there and try to use the “this snuck up on us” excuse?

[JayJay]

@SixFoot

@WuWei

@PurpnGold

@WuWei

Is it? How can it be overwhelming when more people are hospitalized with the flu than have caught Corona?

Factually, it is overwhelming the system in Italy. It’s on its way to doing the same for LA and NYC.

But it’s the same as the flu, right?

I don’t live in Italy.

There are 180,000 hospitalization cases from the flu in the US.

There are 26,784 cases of corona in the US.

How is it overwhelming the system?

Those numbers don’t look nearly enough to overwhelm the hospitals across the nation.

The bulk of those cases are concentrated in a couple of areas.

They aren’t spread out evenly across the nation.

Those places are so hard hit and are facing such shortages of equipment that they are now stopping testing for all except those whose treatment would change.

They are essentially giving up on the other part of the strategy that countries like South Korea used…identify COVID patients and isolate and track.

So now guaranteeing the virus will get out of the super hot zones.

This was just the first week…

[JayJay]

@Snow96

@JayJay

That’s why we do all the proper trials…so it can be labeled properly.

So wait, you want the 7 or so years of trials. I think it was your posts that said months. Months is usually (from the FDA website) a very limited study with very few people. If that works onto another study with more people. That works onto yet another study with even more people. FDA website says those studies take YEARS.

So do you want REAL clinical studies or do you want only want a single study with a lot of people for a few month?

That’s for brand new drugs, not repurposed drugs.

FDA and other world orgs can expedite clinical trials for repurposed drugs to be completed in a matter of months. Easier for these because the safety studies don’t have to be completely redone. The safety profiles are mostly known.

But broad efficacy cannot be determined from such a small sample size. It simply cannot.

In the meantime as I have said repeatedly, doctors can…and will…be using drugs like hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine off label.

The only danger is if they are unskilled and dose too much.

This is one reason why hyping them as miracle “ready now” cures is a bad idea.

It is a fact of science…and life…that if there are no existing standards of care for a pandemic disease, the likelihood of finding one while the pandemic is rushing to its peak is slim to none.

That’s why flatten the curve…to buy yourself time.

Liken it to a war analogy. If the enemy is better armed than you, do you rush out to fight them, or do you retreat and fight a rearguard action until such time as you can equalize the balance in armaments?

[Camp]

I disagree.

The shock is wearing off and positive action will turn the tide swiftly.

[Smyrna]

@Munimula1

What do you make of this?

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer?

[Camp]

Charles Henry Noll former Steelers head coach had a wonderful saying that applies now.

Only worry about the things you can control. If you cannot control it do not worry about it.

America is now working and not worrying.

[JayJay]

@Camp

Charles Henry Noll former Steelers head coach had a wonderful saying that applies now.

Only worry about the things you can control. If you cannot control it do not worry about it.

America is now working and not worrying.

Injecting realism into the discussion is not worrying. I had this very discussion with my daughter, who works in an essential business and therefore keeps going out to work. She was feeling guilty about it because she knows she risks exposure to all of us.

We told her she’s doing an essential job, and that we are all doing what we can to minimize exposure to ourselves…but we can’t reduce the risk to zero so stop worrying about it. If we get it we get it and we’ll deal with it then.

You OTOH are displaying false bravado. We aren’t doing nearly enough yet.

[Camp]

The right people are making great strides.

A positive position is the best outlook. Nothing false about that.