And none of this changes the fact that Texas is 48th of 50 states in testing rate…which will, of course, impact reported numbers.
They are testing every patient presenting with the symptoms. That will skew the numbers as even higher on a per capita basis.
If you had half the supposed expertise and knowledge you proclaim you’d know that.
When precisely did I say we’d end up at a 1.2% mortality rate or lower?
When this is over and the final numbers come in.
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In two weeks, two weeks ago.
I did? Links?
If so that was based on the claim by the CDC director they’d eliminated the backlog and lag in testing which obviously haven’t been eliminated.
I definitely did say we’d have hit the top of the curve due to the Surge in NYC and NO and that it would begin dropping like a rock once that period was over.
We’ve now tested over 3 million people in the US based on the 120,000 people being tested as reported but the results are still 7-10 days behind in being posted.
10 days from now we can look at the total cases vs today’s total deaths and see just how close we are to 1.2%.
I think that was March 31. Look, I don’t pretend to do modeling; I had no business making any predictions whatsoever about any of this, so I didn’t. Per Adroit’s detailed explanations, seems pretty darn complicated and certainly not a field one should just dabble in. If you made a bad prediction, it’s okay.
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They weren’t delayed.
Context… .
And ten days from now when the reporting has caught up we’ll see just how far off I was whereas your model was flawed from the start.
Anyone can get close by looking at current numbers and advancements and projecting them just a week ahead and do it without so much as a calculator much less modeling software.
They are counting “with” not “of.”
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Nothing was delayed. Nearly all the “stimulus checks” are electronic transfers to start with.
I am rooting for your prediction to get much much closer, of course. Would be wonderful news.
^ I have wondered about this as well. Legitimate question to raise.
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With the numbers cratering in the worst of the hot spots it will have to be.
We all knew the two week surge was going to be hell but it’s been over for several days while we continue testing in excess of 120k people per day.
The rapid tests have been deployed as well and are starting to be used so was those numbers start to come in it’s going to crater quickly.
I certainly hope so. Let’s do this.
Unfortunately we have a lot of people here with a vested interest in this being the worst epidemic with the highest death toll in our nation’s history for purely partisan reasons.
I could care less about the party positions, I want the best for my country and always have so I keep a very positive attitude and try to stick to the truth when discussing what has been done, what could be done at each step of the timeline.
Like any other dynamic event things are in a constant state of flux in a pandemic and given time as we bought with the travel restrictions we’ve had the time to build up our resources just in time for the “surge”.
NYC is actually shipping ventilators to other states because they don’t need them and currently has over 5,000 empty hospital beds specifically reserved for CCCV patients.
Cuomo reported again a dramatic drop in new deaths, new hospitalizations and in the number of serious and critical patients. That is the kind of news the nation needs right now.
Just because some here have argued that Trump is responsible for unnecessary deaths does not mean those posters have a “vested interest” in the “highest death toll possible” (so that Trump looks bad, I presume your theory goes). That’s just absurd, and feels like it was said for purely partisan reasons.
Here’s to hoping the few trends you have identified continue.
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Of course it is, there’s no other reason to make the claim since it’s a bald faced lie given what was known, what was possible, what was practical and given the timeline.
It’s nothing but pure partisan poison just like dismissing the use of the Chloroquine cocktail and other “unproven therapies” as voodoo.
We’ve had several of them argue till they were blue in the face none of these should have been used until the trials were complete and continue warning of devastation if we rush to get a vaccine deployed rapidly short cutting the normal 12-18 months of trials while tens, or even hundreds of thousands of people needlessly die and our economy is plunged into an unrecoverable depression lasting years or even decades.
The only chance dem’s have of a win in Nov much less a sweep is for deaths from this outbreak to exceed those of 1918, the last major nationwide pandemic with a high death tool we faced as a nation.
With a population then of only 1.05M that outbreak killed 665,000 Americans.
For this outbreak to be worse we’d have to see upwards of 2,077,333 dead.
Not sure if serious…
How many times are you going to post this knowing I’ve already quoted it in full context?
It’s just pure slander. Instead of admitting to being wrong multiple times, it’s better to accuse the other side of being evil.
Being realistic is not having a vested interest in calamity. I, like everyone here, would rather things go back to normal tomorrow. However, I don’t live in fantasy land. There’s 2,500 people dying a day and some want to act like we aren’t in the middle of an ongoing disaster.
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