Cornell University leads the way with its vaccination program

Politics
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But no, you can’t extrapolate the data like that in the way they you are because the methodology does not support that extrapolation.

We know how they get the percentages of efficacy…no need to go over that again.

But those percentages don’t translate into what you are trying to extrapolate them to mean.

earlier you were claiming it meant 95% were 100% immune. It looks like you are backing off that claim now.

But you still aren’t quite right. It’s not that 95% have a better chance of not getting covid and 5% have the same chance as an unvaccinated person…it’s simply that in the trial, the vaccinated got 95% less covid.

It’s not that…hmm…it’s hard to explain via post - or I should say, my statistics is too weak to explain it well, and perhaps that’s the problem here all along…

I’ll try…the 95% don’t have a better chance of not getting covid - the 95% didn’t get covid. That doesn’t mean they won’t the day after the trail ends. And it doesn’t mean they will. But they didn’t this time around.

The 5% did. The stats don’t know if they had a better or worse chance of getting it than the 95% or the unvaccinated. All they know is, they got it.

Of course we want to apply these numbers to our lives so we can make informed decisions. But - and again, looks like you are not claiming this an longer - don’t think there is a subset of the vaccinated who simply can’t get covid. That is not true.

Applying the study results to real life…a vaccine with 95% efficacy is just phenomenal. that’s just easy to grasp right?

But the next study to consider regarding vaccine effacicy is the one in the times article that studying three locations int eh US that track vaccinated vs unvaccinated cases (the CDC and most areas are only tracking that for hospitalizations and deaths at this point.) 1 in 5000 to 1 in 10000 per day are your chances of getting covid.

Important to recognize it’s 1 in 5,000 chances, not 1 in 5,000 cases.

So this real world study starts to clarify the ODDS of getting covid, not the efficacy of the vaccine. It becomes an expression of that efficacy as well as real world conditions.

This is the line that is fun to twist your head around:

Here’s one way to think about a 1-in-10,000 daily chance: It would take more than three months for the combined risk to reach just 1%.

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Why would the odds be so much lower than the efficacy percentage? Because the study is following a fixed group of people for a fixed group of time - during a time when vaccines were not widely in the population. So we’re starting to see the affect of the vaccine on community spread - we hoped for herd immunity which would be the ultimate expression of this affect, but we aren’t there and probably won’t get there, but none the less, during the studies, there was moe covid in circulation. So today, for the general population - not a fixed study group - the odds of getting covid after vaccination are dropping even though the efficacy seems to be as well.

I hope I am explaining this clearly, though I probably am not.

And it really doesn’t matter. We have a great vaccine but it is waning. Our odds vaccinated are still really, really good, and boosters are coming.

But your earlier statements about 95% being 100% immune were just not correct. That’s not how it works.

Anywho…

162

no, i’m not. it does mean that, but we don’t know who’s in that 95%

it is absolutely true for the variants the vaccine works on. just as those vaccinated against polio can’t get polio, or are you now going to claim everyone can get polio? if so, there’s no help for you.

otherwise, just stop. if you think for 10 seconds i’m buying into the cdc’s propaganda about 1 in 10K, forget it. its ■■■■■■■■■ how is it that its 1 in 10K here, yet in israel and iceland the odds for vaccinated getting covid are exactly the same as unvaccinated? must be the water

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163

The bottom line is that the 95% efficacy means you are 95% less likely to get Covid versus the unvaccinated. And isn’t that what’s playing out today…currently.

164

for now. it won’t last. once the antibodies wane, theres no immunity. there is only the memory cells. hopefully, they continue working so people get mild cases

165

But that’s what Memory cells do Ben…they remember how to fight it and do. The vaccine also was developed to teach our immune systems to fight it as well as to protect us from it.

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i know. so far as i can tell, natural immunity has a much more robust immune reaction than vaccine immunity after the antibodies wane. not suggesting to get covid, just commenting on the robustness of the response. the question is out there. will the immune response generated in the vaccinated be enough to fight off variants? we don’t know yet. i think however that boosters is a bad idea. if you’ve been vaccinated, and the odds are very much that with the current variants you won’t get that sick, we may be better off letting nature do its thing now, than trying to fight it and have to fight off worse variants later,

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My neighbor is a pulmonologist. We were out standing by the garbage cans…like Hank Hill and his buddies…and he was telling me that there is now concern that the more we do boosters and push for full vaccination, the more likely we are to meet with vaccine resistant variants, like we already have with antibiotic resistant bacteria.

This scares me… because we the collective we…Haven’t even considered this. And if this is possible…is this also something that can happen with the influenza vaccine?

Food for thought. I’m going to spend some time looking into this.

And I probably shouldn’t say it scares me when what I meant to say is it concerns me.

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Since August 20 there have been 450 confirmed cases out of a student body of about 15000.

That is 3% of the student population in less than three weeks with 95% vaccinated.

Florida saw new about 400000 cases out of population of 21.5 million during the same period. That is less than 2% of the population.

Vaccinations are not going to get rid of COVID.

169

How many fully vaccinated Democrats were on that plane?

Six cases x 5000 = 30000

That was some plane.

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170

You are likely right… but this has been the big issue about vaccines. Short of everyone getting the vaccine…which really was not the intention. I agree. It’s not something like ebola that kinda runs and hides for a decade or so. If we are lucky…I think it ends up…hope it ends up with a seasonal spread like the flu…not that it ends up being the flu.

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No, many have considered it. Many hear have even stated that the vaccines and boosters are what’s creating the variants and we may not be able to stop some of them.

Those people are labeled extremists, anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists by many here.

172

in the end, sweeden may have gotten it right. just the same, the safest route right now seems to be to get vaccinated and then get covid. so maybe not so right. if we’re going to beat this thing, it seems to me we need to stop listening to the politicians trying to save us

173

covids timeline seems to be 6 months, not a year. it will end up being less than the flu, but we’ve got to go through it to get there

174

Yeah…I’ve even saying this for months. They don’t know jack…

175

no, you’ve been arguing in favor of their lock downs and mandates that do nothing but make you feel like you’re doing something.

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I have a beautiful graph from June 8 2020 to June 7 2021 of my County’s daily positive cases and then daily percent positive. My own data and graphs. And it shows very nicely the ebb and flow of this thing. And the ■■■■ of it is that we have big up turns every 6 months with little upticks in between.

It’s looking like we are about to hit the October -December 2020 peak just a bit early this year. I hope I’m wrong.

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100% vaccination rate will not change the outcome. We are seeing epidemics among the vaccinated.

In Israel recent data is consistent with zero vaccine effectiveness. The number of vaccinated cases closes corresponds to the fraction of the population that is vaccinated.

The same trends are occurring here, which explains the outbreak in Cornell in spite of 95% vaccination rate.

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Not because of the politicians…but because of my own research into these matters. Not because I believe the politicians.

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i’ve been pretty much alone preaching about the covid timeline since early last summer. the pattern has been there all along, regardless of any mitigation. vaccines, social distancing and hygene can protect you, the rest is garbage dreampt up by politicians to make themselves look good.

180

Yeah, ok.
Not only did I try to explain your mistakes in a respectful and conversational way, but I also tried to engage in a productive conversation about the topic.

Pretty clear you aren’t interested in the truth or real conversation, so have a great night.