zantax
March 3, 2020, 11:31pm
127
moonshine:
h1n1 infected 60m people in the US and killed 12k according to the CDC
if coronavirus were to infect 60m in the US based on the 2% death rate that would be 1.2M
just a little different scale…
Except it is 1.4 or lower now, not 2. Likely to fall to be on par with the flu before all is said and done.
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You just claimed I said it was impossible to produce even a single kit more than has been produced.
You knew it wasn’t true when you posted it.
Read your own damned article. They are squalling about a one time appropriation for combating Ebola that passed in 2014 which was about to expire.
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Increased to 3.4% globally now.
zantax
March 3, 2020, 11:35pm
132
Might help if you understood what he said, which wasn’t that summer heat would kill the virus but that transmission rates would fall as people spend less time couped up indoors.
There is no possibility left that we can have an honest discussion on this forum.
zantax
March 3, 2020, 11:41pm
138
We aren’t global, I was talking about the US. 1.4 was in China, it will be even lower here. First reports out of China had it at two, later reports at 1.4.
from Coronavirus vs the Flu: Are They Different? - The New York Times
The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu , below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
But by all means, return to your politically based fear mongering.
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zantax:
We aren’t global, I was talking about the US. 1.4 was in China, it will be even lower here. First reports out of China had it at two, later reports at 1.4.
from Coronavirus vs the Flu: Are They Different? - The New York Times
The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu , below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
But by all means, return to your politically based fear mongering.
the WHO is fear mongering…gotcha.
and there was no mention in your post about limiting to US only because if we were to consider US only right now the death rate would be about 7% (9 death and 118 confirmed cases)
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We’ve had 121 confirmed cases in the US.
i quoted his entire post…
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oops that leads to a brand new number of…about 7%
4 Likes
zantax
March 3, 2020, 11:48pm
145
mobiusptc:
zantax:
We aren’t global, I was talking about the US. 1.4 was in China, it will be even lower here. First reports out of China had it at two, later reports at 1.4.
from Coronavirus vs the Flu: Are They Different? - The New York Times
The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu , below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
But by all means, return to your politically based fear mongering.
the WHO is fear mongering…gotcha.
and there was no mention in your post about limiting to US only because if we were to consider US only right now the death rate would be about 7% (9 death and 118 confirmed cases)
Umm no it wouldn’t. You can’t go by confirmed cases only, you have to be able to estimate total cases including those not reported, way to early to have anything resembling a valid mortality rate this early. As I linked, experts are predicting, based on their experience, that it will be in the neighborhood of a severe seasonal flu.
zantax:
mobiusptc:
zantax:
We aren’t global, I was talking about the US. 1.4 was in China, it will be even lower here. First reports out of China had it at two, later reports at 1.4.
from Coronavirus vs the Flu: Are They Different? - The New York Times
The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu , below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
But by all means, return to your politically based fear mongering.
the WHO is fear mongering…gotcha.
and there was no mention in your post about limiting to US only because if we were to consider US only right now the death rate would be about 7% (9 death and 118 confirmed cases)
Umm no it wouldn’t. You can’t go by confirmed cases only, you have to be able to estimate total cases including those not reported, way to early to have anything resembling a valid mortality rate this early. As I linked, experts are predicting, based on their experience, that it will be in the neighborhood of a severe seasonal flu.
so we cant use global numbers, but we cant use only US numbers…
well that makes perfect logical sound sense
zantax
March 3, 2020, 11:50pm
149
zantax:
mobiusptc:
zantax:
We aren’t global, I was talking about the US. 1.4 was in China, it will be even lower here. First reports out of China had it at two, later reports at 1.4.
from Coronavirus vs the Flu: Are They Different? - The New York Times
The true death rate could turn out to be similar to that of a severe seasonal flu , below 1 percent, according to an editorial published in the journal by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci and Dr. H. Clifford Lane, of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
But by all means, return to your politically based fear mongering.
the WHO is fear mongering…gotcha.
and there was no mention in your post about limiting to US only because if we were to consider US only right now the death rate would be about 7% (9 death and 118 confirmed cases)
Umm no it wouldn’t. You can’t go by confirmed cases only, you have to be able to estimate total cases including those not reported, way to early to have anything resembling a valid mortality rate this early. As I linked, experts are predicting, based on their experience, that it will be in the neighborhood of a severe seasonal flu.
And yes, the WHO engages in fear mongering, that is how they pry funds out of nations. But they also concern themselves with the entire globe, which on the whole has much more to fear from this than we do.
No you didn’t, what I said is absolutely accurate and you can’t show anything to the contrary.
WildRose:
And what do you think that shows exactly.
Expected and Known are two different words with completely different meanings.
The viruses spread similarly and the Covid19 is very similar to a number of our normal CV’s that cause the common cold.
It is typical for repsiratory virus outbreaks to wane in the warmer months because people aren’t packed into tiny, tight places face to face and elbow to elbow with other people trying to fight the cold.
They disperse and enjoy the warmer weather which reduces transmission.
We have no reason to believe the same will not be the case for this virus since it spreads by the same means as our typical cold and flu viruses.
zantax
March 3, 2020, 11:51pm
151
You can’t use any of them at this point for a true mortality rate, it’s too early to make that assessment.
If you want to have a decent sample size to draw conclusions from yes.
