I’ve heard this question bandied about every now and then so, I was curious on what some hear who are more in tune with this situation think? What is the endgame? What if the Ukrainians simply don’t have the manpower to do win? Do we keep sending billions of dollars every few months to Ukraine year after year after year? And for how long?
As I found in Ukraine last year, many Ukrainians in private were prepared to accept the loss of some territories as the price of peace if Ukraine failed to win them back on the battlefield and if the alternative was years of bloody war with little prospect of success. The Biden Administration needs to get America on board too.
Yet supporters of complete Ukrainian victory have engaged in hopes that range from the overly optimistic to the magical. At the magical end of the spectrum is the notion, set out by retired U.S. Army General Ben Hodges among others, that Russia can be defeated, and even driven from Crimea, by long-range missile bombardment.
This is folly. Ukrainians have scored some notable successes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet, but to take back Crimea they would need to be able to launch a massive amphibious landing, an exceptionally difficult operation far beyond their capabilities in terms of ships and men. Attacks on Russian infrastructure are pinpricks given Russia’s size and resources.
The notion that Ukraine can’t win is ludicrous. Of course they can. If they had done as I stated back in '22 they would have already won. The key to Ukranian victory is simple, achieving it won’t be.
They must take Melitopol. It wuld have been much easier back in '22 but they opted for what I assume was Pentagon planning and tried to roll up the south from west to east instead of splitting it while Russia had much less defense in the south.
Now, its gonna be a slog. They will need the armor they still have, they will need the f-16’s they’ve been promised, and they will need munitions to get the job done.
Take Melitopol and everything west of it collapses for Russia. Crimea becomes a shooting gallery that Russia cannot defend. Once Crimea goes, the war is over. Nothing in the east matters. If Crimea goes, Putin goes with it. That is their only hope for victory.
It was not inevitable in the beginning. Areas dominated by Russian ethnic people in the east and Crimea could have probably been given some autonomy and that may have been the end of it. Instead, we went in with our all or nothing, just like Vietnam or Afghanistan and this will end with us pulling out. The sole result of this latest being policeman for the world will be the collapse of Ukraine and tens of thousands of needless deaths.
No, they are different locations. One is more tropical. Nothing is just like anything else. Some people would understand the comparison. Others use their tired emojis.
When Russia took Crimea and the US under Obama chose to do nothing…“we” made our decision. Now “we” are billions and billions and billions and billions in debt, with a national debt of 35 trillion, where it now take 40% of our generated tax revenue just to service OUR debt. We do not have the money to still be worried about the Ukraine. My fellow Americans…“we” are now the ones who are in serious trouble on many fronts…from our southern border to losing the American dollar as the world’s gold standard. It is true…“ignorance is bliss”.
