IMO, none of that will happen. Itâs suicidal to play with Pandoraâs box and both sides have reasonable leadership. But we could set up a worst case scenario.
We fire back and destroy the target that sunk the British warship. This is my theory (I love nuclear war games even though I abhor nuclear weapons). This would play out over several days.
Both sides go to DEFCON 3 or equivalent (Russia doesnât use the exact same system, but itâs similar). Then the game gets interesting.
If Russia responds by sinking another US or UK warship, we may respond with greater force.
US and other NATO naval forces begin to move into the Black Sea in large numbers. US and allied conventional forces worldwide are put on high alert. US Ohio class, UK Vanguard class, and French Triomphant class subs not being refueled but not on active patrol go to sea.
Russian nuclear forces go on high alert. Tu-95MS and Tu-160 âBlackjacksâ are dispersed to staging fields. Russian SS-18, SS-19, RS-24, and Topol M ICBMs are put on hair trigger alert and are mostly set for counterforce. The liquid fueled missiles are fueled and put into standby mode, they can remain in this state for a few days; solid booster missiles like the SS-18 are already ready to go at anytime but are less accurate than US solid fueled missiles.
Russian ground and aerospace forces begin to fully mobilize, albeit not at the same rate as US and NATO forces due to their less efficient structure. Russian subs, the Deltas carrying Sinevas and the Boreis carrying Bulavas, not in refueling or already on patrol go to sea with a mixture of counterforce and countervalue (cities basically) target profiles.
US forces go to DEFCON 2 due to Russian mobilization and the bombers being dispersed from normal bases. Aegis or equivalent capable cruisers and destroyers from all US and allied nations (like the UK and Japan) mobilize for ABM defense. Russian ABM forces around the Moscow area ICBM fields do the same. Russia lacks any sort of ABM naval based systems. At this point one of two things happen.
A. Both sides back down from the brink.
B. One navy starts firing conventional weapons, like cruise missiles, at the other in the Black Sea.
If B happens, Russia goes to their equivalent of DEFCON 1 and permission is given to the Russian navy to sink US and allied ships by any means necessary, including but not limited to nuclear torpedos and cruise missiles, mixed in with conventional attacks. At this point, everything occurs over the span of a few hours.
Russian bombers begin leaving their dispersal airfields along with refueling planes. Su-27 and Su-35 fighters are mobilized to accompany them for defense. MiG-31 interceptors are dispersed to the edge of Russian airspace to attempt to shoot down US B-52 and B-2 bombers or at least their ALCM air to ground cruise missiles. Considering their long travel time, russian offensive forces are targeting mostly countervalue targets in CONUS but can be recalled. Russian ICBMs and SLBMs are held in reserve for now.
Numerous US and allied ships in the Black Sea suffer heavy damage and are sunk by nuclear naval weaponry as well as conventionally armed cruise missiles. US forces go to DEFCON 1. The president authorizes the use of nuclear counterforce strikes on all Russian forces.
US B-2 and B-52s carrying nuclear ALCMs and B83 bombs take off from their air bases. B-1s carrying conventional weapons take off as well to attack Russian naval forces operating outside the Black Sea. 200 American Minuteman III ICBMs, of which 450 are active, are fired at Russian ICBM silos, air fields, army bases, and at ABM command buildings and bunkers. The rest are held in reserve. The US is only targeting counterforce targets at this time, although the President is informed that the strike will kill several million Russian civilians immediately with millions more to die over the course of weeks and months due to some targets being located near cities.
Russian early warning systems detect more than 200 ICBM launches in CONUS. Russian ICBMs as well SLBMs, nearly 500 missiles in total, are fired at various targets across the continental United States, mostly counterforce targets like bases but some are targeted directly at cities. Sub strategic missiles and MiG-29 and Su-27s carrying tactical nuclear bombs are launched at every NATO capitol and major military installation in Europe.
The American warning system is more sophisticated than what the Russians use and immediately detect the launches and are able to estimate their targets and time to detonation. Most of the remaining US ICBM Arsenal is launched, along with a portion of American SLBMs.
After this, those in the know countdown the minutes until modern civilization is set back more than a thousand years. Even in such a scenario, both sides would have hundreds of missiles and other nuclear assets left in reserve. But there probably wouldnât be any command and control left to use them. Except for the submarines.
