Analysis: Senate tilting red, House blue for 2024

Politics
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https://www.axios.com/2023/09/17/2024-elections-senate-house-projections

I have been thinking for some time that we are headed towards a swap of control of the two Houses, regardless of how the Presidential race turns out.

I think the chances are high that the House will swing to Democratic control.

I think the chances are just about as high that the Senate will swing to Republican control.

It is extremely unlikely that either party is going to win the Presidency by more than a squeaker. Without a large victory, there will be no coattails, which makes it more likely that we will experience a swap of houses.

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I will say that Democratic US Senator Tammy Baldwin is up for reelection and WisGOP has yet to field a candidate. That’s why “sheriff” David Clarke (R-Clown) keeps threatening to run.

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Overall it’s better to control the Senate than the House, since you have control of appointments.

On the Presidential polls, they seem to still be tied. At this point it doesn’t mean much, except that multiple Democrat based indictments have not done the damage that was hoped.
Although tied, the bright spot for Trump is the swing states.

“But in a worrisome result for Biden, Trump held a small advantage in the seven states where the 2020 presidential election was closest: Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Michigan. In those states, Trump led with 41% to Biden’s 35%, and 24% undecided.“

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Polls right now may not mean much except … what if they do ?

i.e. at this point in 2019, Biden was leading Trump by about same that he ended up beating him in 2020.

And after all, it’s not like most voters by this time haven’t had the time to form an opinion about both of these gentlemen.

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other than 1 seat in NY where are they going to take them?

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The choice between mean tweets or skyrocketing gas prices. How far will the swamp go this time. lol

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…and I hope “we the people” are brighter than that. San Fran, NYC, LA…all examples of the D way and it’s got to stop. I’d wager the homeless comprende perfectamente.

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The House is always volatile and does skew Dem.

In this time of inflation and excess illegal immigration I think it will remain a close call until election day. This will depend on just how bad the inflation misery is over the next year.

Calling the chance “HIGH” right now is unwarranted bravado.

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The Rs should instigate a “get out the vote” campaign among the homeless in lib cities.

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Pointing out that the migrants are getting all their funding…

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Not really and not any more bravado than rating the Republican chances in the Senate as high.

It merely reflects both political and structural reality.

Republicans have a 5 seat majority.

And they have a number of razor thin seats.

Santos

Boebert (who continues to self sabotage)

There will be one seat going away in Alabama.

Perhaps up to 3 additional seats (besides Santos) going away in New York.

Republicans have some hostile factors to deal with on the House side and only a 5 seat majority to start from.

It is not so much a vote swing as a structural swing that they are fighting against.

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Sure if you ignore the inflation and immigration misery.

They are hard to ignore for most of us.

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Generic congressional ballot at RCP:

Republicans. 44.4
Democrats. 44

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That’s one

good luck

I wouldn’t count that yet

why? they’ll be working off the same map

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Well PA is warming up to be a lo informed voter paradise.

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Today’s PA special election

"BREAKING: Democrat Lindsay Powell is now the projected winner of the Pennsylvania District 21 special election. This gives Democrats control of Pennsylvania House.

This is an important win for Democrats in the state. She is the first Black woman to be nominated in her district.

Democrats continue to gain votes in PA.

Is this a sign of things to come in 2024?"

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Hopefully…cuz we need more illegal immigration. We need more homelessness. We need more inner city violence and murders. We need more children confused about their sex…

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senate comes down to arizona and ohio. Wv senate seat is a goner.

good chance of a 50-50 senate again (sans manchin and sinema)

good chance to take back the house (jeffries new speaker)

and of course good chance for biden to hold serve against trump.

Allan

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…and inflation…inflation…inflation!!

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If they use paper ballots, the Democrats will no longer exists.