I disagree, about misplaced levels of high confidence. What they are trying to do is to take individual outlier polls from the 2016 campaign and use them to undermine what they tell you at a point in time and project that onto future results.
We are going to disagree on this one brother. I have probably 50 bookmarks of posters here confidently exclaiming Trump is a shoe-in for re-election. While this specific thread may be how you describe, on the whole the confidence levels being espoused by many here is equal that of some of those who were blindly confident of Clinton’s success in 2016.
This is yooge, along with signs of seniors’ disillusionment with Trump over his perceived bungling of the pandemic response. You can’t disregard your most devoted voter demographic and expect an easy path to victory. People are ready for boring and stable.
The fire-hose of constant chaos has seemingly caught up to Trump. When you rule through division and chaos, the people finally get tired of it and are ready to move on.
states were responsible for implementation of the response. This ain’t your daddy Obama’s kingdom. Trump respects the fact that our constitution does not give the federal government all power, authority, and responsibility.
Politics is perception, and the increasing perception among an increasing number of people (including seniors) is that when it comes to COVID Trump is either unwilling or unable to lead in this crisis. He can’t even exemplify proper CDC protocol for his base by wearing a mask as he crowds them into enclosed spaces for rallies. And it doesn’t go unnoticed.
He’s the leader of this nation. He can’t just wash his hands of everything (pun intended) and expect everyone to love him for it.
Our states aren’t separated by walls bro. We needed a clear, federal, across-the-board plan on this, not 50 governors inventing the wheel themselves and alone. Now we are 4% of the earth’s population with 25% of the COVID. This is bad.
Maybe Trump can try to use that logic on them to reassure them.
You might well be right, but when it comes to politics and Trump’s chances of re-election it doesn’t matter. Deserved or not, he is alienating an absolutely critical percentage of his base with this behavior. It certainly doesn’t get them juiced to stand in line with others, for extended periods, to cast a vote for him.
The virus doesn’t care how “diverse” you are. The measures to control it would be the same. We failed to do that, and the States who didn’t follow protocol are getting crushed by this thing.
As I’ve said, polls are snapshots, not predictors.
A lot can happen in the next sixteen weeks, and while I will predict that Trump can be relied on to keep stepping on landmines, Biden’s camp would be foolish at this point to do anything less than step on the gas and campaign like they’re 20 points behind.