Historically, an approval rating in the high 40s or better is needed for an incumbent president to win re-election. I guess we’ll see where he is a year from now.
Unlike other Presidents, Trump approval/disapproval ratings have been relatively stable. On the approval side, he’s veered anywhere between 38% to 45%, and his disapproval side has veered anywhere in the 50-55% range.
He was able to win the electoral college by a somewhat comfortable margin because his opponent also had high negatives. If the Democrats put forth a candidate, people actually like, then Trump’s 2020 bid is going to be problematic.
Losing the house was a big negative for Trump’s 20-20 chances.
And you’re 100% correct that his approval ratings or lack of, is a big problem for him. If he were to win re-election, it would be a historic first.
Don’t trust Rasmussen. Today Trump is at 50-49 with a plus one approval. He was at plus eight two days ago. With their rolling three day average he’s going to be negative tomorrow. All of the other polls have him consistently in the low forties or even upper thirties. And they don’t have crazy ass swings. Will Trump tweet about Rasmussen tomorrow?