I’m not sure you are remembering things correctly. Even without Covid hitting at the tail end of first quarter 2020, there were projections that we were going to have negative growth. First quarter slowed down big time even before the end of March.
Yeah I remember, it was doing just fine.
A lot of people were worried about a recession in 2020 in 2019. Pre covid.
As I said yours is a revisionist history.
The truth is out there if you care to look.
Allan
Pepperidge farm remembers.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/
“The surge in the recession probability mainly reflects the shocking jobless claims figures, but plummeting stock prices for much of the month also played a role. The model’s reading on the odds for February came in at 33%”
Allan
Bloomberg…the guy that own Bloomberg was running for pres…that guy.
What does that have to do with a recession model.
It was possible going into 2020.
We had threads on it in the forum
Allan
There was no recession at end of Trump term. Stop believing left-wing media hype.
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There was a recession due to covid in 2020, of that there can be no doubt.
Allan
and a recovery that started 3rd quarter 2020 that was restrained by stupid policies in leftist states. if not for those stupid policies overall gdp would have increased in 2020 instead of having a relatively modest 2.4% decrease with 1.2% inflation and a 5.5% increase in wages.
Well that’s beyond wishful thinking. Also, hope you’re aware that GDP actually fell 3.49 percent in 2020. Not sure where you came up with “modest 2.4”. -3.49 wasn’t modest. It was the worst year since 1932.
real gdp from q4 to q4 fell 2.4% the number you’re looking at was reported out in april and is calandar year. matters nor, insert it if you wish. its still modest considering the pandemic and q2. anyone who thought thats where we’d end up would have been considered wishfull thinking
I’m sorry, you can’t just change what you said. 2020 was minus 3.49. You just had it wrong. No big deal. We all make mistakes. But we always go by calendar year for GDP unless someone specifically mentions they’re doing a different form of calculation. I don’t judge people for making a mistake and being wrong.
no we don’t always go by anything real gdp is calculated each quarter and several reports are issued including “last 12 months” “month over month” among others. what the media chooses to report is calendar year gdp; following the end f the fiscal year there is always a report for q4 to q4. as i saod though, insert whatever you wish. 3.4% is still way better than projections and modest considering q2.
Sorry. Some of this is nonsense. The Bureau of Economic Analysis doesnt do “month over month” GDP growth reporting. No one does.
That is completely made up.
of course, i meant quarter over quarter comparing to last quarter and same quarter last year.
Glad we’re in agreement that “month on month” GDP comparisons don’t exist. You made that up. The only people who use year on year GDP are people trying to cherry pick things to find a number they like. Quarterly GDP reports, and calendar year reports are the ones people use. Unless you’re trying to find something to make you feel better. Trump tried that with trying to find a year where he had 3% GDP growth. He thought he found one, but even then it got revised down so he never even had 3% year on year growth. It was embarrassing.
I’ve got a little secret for you, the president doesn’t control GDP.
Well he sure as hell gets blamed here if its low.
Not by me.
Fair enough. But you do understand that it’s damn near impossible to explain GDP and job reports to people here who refuse to understand even the basics of what those reports even mean but latch onto a news report about economic numbers they don’t understand? I mean I had to call out someone on lying about “month on month” GDP reports that don’t even exist.
