3rd Quarter GDP (Third Estimate)

ImRightYoureWrong · December 21, 2018, 4:55pm

At least trump doubled the deficit at full emplyment

Cratic3947 · December 21, 2018, 5:01pm

adroit:

So the BEA released the third estimate today for 3rd quarter GDP growth. It was revised down from 3.5 to 3.4. That puts 3rd quarter GDP at 18,664.973 billion. With this update, the three major targets for 4th quarter growth are:

2.6%: What’s needed in 4th quarter growth to match Obama’s best year
3.7%: What’s needed in 4th quarter growth to achieve 2.95% for 2018 which will be rounded up in reports as 3%
4.5%: What’s needed in 4th quarter growth to achieve actual 3% growth in 2018.

Unless a miracle happens or all of the predictive models are completely off (possible), the latter two are not really achievable. Here are some predictions from the models:

Atlanta Fed (12/21): 2.7%
NY Fed (12/21): 2.48%
St. Louis Fed (12/14): 2.65%
Moody’s (12/18): 2.8%

So, the question is, can Trump achieve 2.6% in the 4th quarter or will 2018 go down as another year where Trump couldn’t top Obama?

Which is another reason the fed should not have raised interest rates… You don’t do that with low inflation and a slowing economy…

Cratic3947 · December 21, 2018, 5:03pm

We have record tax collection at all levels…DC Dems know what the problem in and won’t prose any solutions. It’s dishonest…

ImRightYoureWrong · December 21, 2018, 5:03pm

We had record tax collections throughout Obama’s terms too and he didnt double the deficit he inherited

ImRightYoureWrong · December 21, 2018, 5:04pm

GOP has controlled Congress trumps entire term so far

MoleUK · December 21, 2018, 5:06pm

And with about half of corporate CFO’s predicting a recession by the end of 2019, and about 80% of them by 2020.

Cynic · December 21, 2018, 5:06pm

As I explained to you yesterday, the 2018 inflation rate is higher than 6/10 of the last years and was projected to increase.

Cynic · December 21, 2018, 5:08pm

Also, how is a “record economy” just two years after the “worst recovery ever” now a “slowing economy”.

These narratives you have parroted make no sense.

adroit · December 21, 2018, 7:17pm

Yeah, that got a ■■■ out of me. The bestest economy is a slowing economy after massively deficit fueled tax cuts? Sad!

mobiusptc · December 21, 2018, 7:18pm

Cratic3947:

adroit:

So the BEA released the third estimate today for 3rd quarter GDP growth. It was revised down from 3.5 to 3.4. That puts 3rd quarter GDP at 18,664.973 billion. With this update, the three major targets for 4th quarter growth are:

2.6%: What’s needed in 4th quarter growth to match Obama’s best year
3.7%: What’s needed in 4th quarter growth to achieve 2.95% for 2018 which will be rounded up in reports as 3%
4.5%: What’s needed in 4th quarter growth to achieve actual 3% growth in 2018.

Unless a miracle happens or all of the predictive models are completely off (possible), the latter two are not really achievable. Here are some predictions from the models:

Atlanta Fed (12/21): 2.7%
NY Fed (12/21): 2.48%
St. Louis Fed (12/14): 2.65%
Moody’s (12/18): 2.8%

So, the question is, can Trump achieve 2.6% in the 4th quarter or will 2018 go down as another year where Trump couldn’t top Obama?

Which is another reason the fed should not have raised interest rates… You don’t do that with low inflation and a slowing economy…

when did the economy start slowing, is there a specific date range?

ImRightYoureWrong · December 21, 2018, 7:35pm

4 real. Trumps economy sucks it needs that easy fed money QE

adroit · December 21, 2018, 7:47pm

This is why I was somewhat hoping the GOP would have kept the house. They need to own this fail whale completely and then wander the desert for 40 years.

biggestal99 · December 21, 2018, 8:11pm

The economy is slowing down. Everybody know it.

Allan

ImRightYoureWrong · December 21, 2018, 8:13pm

Ya but you know the CEC would cook something up

peek-a-boo · December 21, 2018, 10:30pm

adroit:

So the BEA released the third estimate today for 3rd quarter GDP growth. It was revised down from 3.5 to 3.4. That puts 3rd quarter GDP at 18,664.973 billion. With this update, the three major targets for 4th quarter growth are:

2.6%: What’s needed in 4th quarter growth to match Obama’s best year
3.7%: What’s needed in 4th quarter growth to achieve 2.95% for 2018 which will be rounded up in reports as 3%
4.5%: What’s needed in 4th quarter growth to achieve actual 3% growth in 2018.

Unless a miracle happens or all of the predictive models are completely off (possible), the latter two are not really achievable. Here are some predictions from the models:

Atlanta Fed (12/21): 2.7%
NY Fed (12/21): 2.48%
St. Louis Fed (12/14): 2.65%
Moody’s (12/18): 2.8%

So, the question is, can Trump achieve 2.6% in the 4th quarter or will 2018 go down as another year where Trump couldn’t top Obama?

Might be quibbling but in my spreadsheet 18,665 billion yields 3.31%. I get exactly 3.40% with 18,669 billion.

Given the current economic instability, I believe we would be hard pressed to get to 2.6% 4th quarter GDP growth this year.

lulubee · December 21, 2018, 11:25pm

Smart people know the truth. The dumb people would just concoct a reason it’s the D’s fault regardless.

Just like they are blaming the D’s for the shutdown.

Smyrna · December 21, 2018, 11:31pm

I’m going with number one and if it’s true, would you know it by the media? The answer influences the stock market…

Snow96 · December 22, 2018, 7:11am

How many times did the fed raise interest rates in Obama best year? How many years into his presidency was his “best year”?

Snow96 · December 22, 2018, 7:15am

i don’t think the fed got the memo. They just raised interest rates for the 4th time, and indicated they will do so another 2 times in 2019 to slow the economy down.

biggestal99 · December 22, 2018, 9:32am

The fed knows the economy is slowing down, they have predicted it since the tax cut law came into effect. Initial rise when the money hits and then a slow decrease.

They are raising rates to help when it is needed.

Allan