So the BEA released the third estimate today for 3rd quarter GDP growth. It was revised down from 3.5 to 3.4. That puts 3rd quarter GDP at 18,664.973 billion. With this update, the three major targets for 4th quarter growth are:
2.6%: What’s needed in 4th quarter growth to match Obama’s best year
3.7%: What’s needed in 4th quarter growth to achieve 2.95% for 2018 which will be rounded up in reports as 3%
4.5%: What’s needed in 4th quarter growth to achieve actual 3% growth in 2018.
Unless a miracle happens or all of the predictive models are completely off (possible), the latter two are not really achievable. Here are some predictions from the models:
Atlanta Fed (12/21): 2.7%
NY Fed (12/21): 2.48%
St. Louis Fed (12/14): 2.65%
Moody’s (12/18): 2.8%
So, the question is, can Trump achieve 2.6% in the 4th quarter or will 2018 go down as another year where Trump couldn’t top Obama?