The official track, GEFS ensemble and GEPS ensemble.
The difference between the GEFS and the GEPS is striking, to put it mildly. GEFS predicts a more typical pattern, while GEPS seems to pick up both on the weak Bermuda High and the low pressure trough (previously a cold front) hanging down over Florida to bring the system over Florida.
Will continue to watch and see which ensemble is more accurate.
Thank you. We are going to do our best. I’ve lived in Florida all of my life and been through some pretty bad storms. The worst is losing electricity and the sweltering heat/humidity that follows.
Ironically, we had a whole house generator installed but it hasn’t been hooked up to the electrical panel yet. We have a gas generator in the meantime.
If it gets interesting I’ll try to post some pictures
My brother is down there, but on the Atlantic side in Brevard County. Expecting heavy flooding, but at most very minimal wind impact on that side of the State. His house is on relatively high ground on the Atlantic Ridge, so any flooding won’t affect him directly. Probably no major impacts to the power grid on that side of the State, but he has a whole house generator if it comes to that.
If there is a humorous aspect to this, it may be that I might get a larger impact here in Surry County, North Carolina, than my brother in Florida. Models are in good consensus that the remnants of the system will pass directly over me, which means mountain flooding. While my property has no flooding risks, plenty of flood risk in the area and of course the river basins downstream from here.
Here is the latest consensus models. The models showing the storm going near Orlando are much higher confidence than the model bringing it out to the Atlantic over Brevard County.