2022 Atlantic Tropical Weather thread

Within the last 15 minutes, the NHC has upgraded Tropical Depression 7 to Tropical Storm Fiona.

Anthromorphic? :face_with_raised_eyebrow:

Do you mean anthropogenic?

Sure when we get that…figured out…will be fascinating to see how many billion humans will need culled to get Earth back to its carrying capacity.

About 6 or 7 billion would probably give the rest of the species a chance.

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In the mean time the misery index is raised to its highest level so that we will have plenty of volunteers for the cull.

It’s nothing we don’t have the technology to mitigate, but emergency funding doesn’t just increase itself. :person_shrugging:

It’ll take more than that to do it. Most of the people in the world are used to misery.

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Getting back to topic.

The upcoming Atlantic weather map.

The official track, GEFS ensemble and GEPS ensemble.

The difference between the GEFS and the GEPS is striking, to put it mildly. GEFS predicts a more typical pattern, while GEPS seems to pick up both on the weak Bermuda High and the low pressure trough (previously a cold front) hanging down over Florida to bring the system over Florida.

Will continue to watch and see which ensemble is more accurate.

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GEFS definitely won the war on Fiona. Much of that due to the trough over Florida breaking down and moving east faster than expected.

But now it looks like Florida will be getting something and this time both GEFS and GEPS are on the same page.

This system (Invest 98L) is still a good week away from any possible Florida landfall, but models are in good alignment.

Remember that quiet August.

It is going to intensify and then slow down at Florida landfall, so Florida is going to get a triple whammy of winds, storm surge and flooding.

Yup I’m watching the outer bands coming in with light rain right now.

Heavy rain starts this afternoon.

Best of luck to all of my fellow Floridians :crossed_fingers:

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Stay safe.

Thank you. We are going to do our best. I’ve lived in Florida all of my life and been through some pretty bad storms. The worst is losing electricity and the sweltering heat/humidity that follows.


Be safe. Check in periodically to let us know are OK if you can please.



Ironically, we had a whole house generator installed but it hasn’t been hooked up to the electrical panel yet. We have a gas generator in the meantime.

If it gets interesting I’ll try to post some pictures :face_with_spiral_eyes:

My brother is down there, but on the Atlantic side in Brevard County. Expecting heavy flooding, but at most very minimal wind impact on that side of the State. His house is on relatively high ground on the Atlantic Ridge, so any flooding won’t affect him directly. Probably no major impacts to the power grid on that side of the State, but he has a whole house generator if it comes to that.

The precipitation map is about as alarming as anything for central Florida.

Most current map.

I fear that Florida is going to get hit hard.

Anyone down there please stay safe.

If there is a humorous aspect to this, it may be that I might get a larger impact here in Surry County, North Carolina, than my brother in Florida. Models are in good consensus that the remnants of the system will pass directly over me, which means mountain flooding. While my property has no flooding risks, plenty of flood risk in the area and of course the river basins downstream from here.

Here is the latest consensus models. The models showing the storm going near Orlando are much higher confidence than the model bringing it out to the Atlantic over Brevard County.

I was a fairly young child, but I remember the flooding from Hurricane Agnes in Pennsylvania in 1972. Massive flooding damage.