Third month in a row where job offers outnumber the unemployed. Tax cuts and lowered regulations keeping the economy booming. If the reps keep the house, we will boom.
“The proportion of workers quitting their jobs is at the highest level in nearly 13 years. That’s a sign of confidence in the economy, because workers typically quit when they are sure they can find a new job, or when they already have one, usually at higher pay.”
“U.S. employers posted slightly more openings in June than the previous month, resulting in more available jobs than unemployed people for the third straight month, signaling a solid economy.”
I’m not as confident. Similar to high turnover, it doesn’t necessarily mean there are more jobs available, just that your current job is that bad that you’re not losing anything by quitting. An over abundance of crap jobs can yield the same results. I’m not trying to throw a wet towel on this, just positing the possibility.
Wages are slow to rise because employers don’t need to raise wages. It’s no more complicated than that. We actually need a labor shortage to get better pay. Until that happens employers seem to be ok with high turnover.
Wages are stagnant because companies have zero incentive to pay people more. Unions are all but extinct and us tax payers are subsidizing companies who don’t pay a living wage. So they have zero incentive to pay more.
A labor shortage will help certainly. And people voluntarily leaving their work could be a good sign. However there are also some red flags popping up in the economy. I continue to remain cautiously optimistic, but we’re also due for a recession and correction of the market.
“Salaries: US wage growth in June was 2018’s strongest so far”
"“What results is that more workers, especially in high demand industries like healthcare, finance, and e-commerce, are in the driver’s seat to negotiate for better pay in order to fill these roles.”
The Glassdoor data showed that traditional blue-collar jobs – such as truck driver, warehouse associate, and materials handler – posted large wage gains. The increases were tied to the increasing demand for manpower in those areas created by growth in e-commerce, and Chamberlain expects that wages for these positions will continue to climb throughout 2018."
I am seeing more and more ads proclaiming “no experience necessary!”, which is an indication (to me) that the pool of experienced candidates is shallow. This triggers non-experienced workers to leave their no-skill positions for better work (if the pay at the positions that will train you is more than the entry-level jobs they are at.)
There was a time when 5% unemployment levels was considered optimal. Lower than that would cause inflationary pressure on wages, and therefore on product/service prices. Now we’re below 4%.
People are leaving current positions for better ones. Unemployment rates have started to shift people away from holding onto a lesser job because, “hey, at least I have a job…”
I have been a firm believer that if someone wants more pay than he is currently getting, he should do whatever it takes to move to a better paying job.
The growing job mobility is a sign that more people are willing to take precisely that leap.