The easiest and surest way to predict elections is to bet against Dick Morris.
Forget the polls. If Morris says that X will win, that means that Y will win.
So far Morris hasn’t made a prediction. The closest he has came to it is to say that the polls are wrong - that Biden is only leading by 1 point.
I’ll keep watching him. As soon as he predicts a winner, I’ll let you know.
Morris predicts a Trump blowout. Even potentially winning the popular vote.
Trump should sweep the battleground states, likely carrying not only Pennsylvania and Michigan but also New Hampshire, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, Iowa, and Nevada. He might even carry Minnesota. If the predictions in the reliable polls hold true, he could beat Biden in the electoral college by 323-215, nineteen more votes than he won in 2016.
The popular vote is likely to be close (as opposed to the 2.6% by which Hillary won it) and may even go to Trump.
As Nate Silver pointed out, Trafalgar’s cross-tabs are off the rails insane.
In Michigan, Trafalgar predicts Trump wins 28% of the Black vote, 52% of the Hispanic vote, 30% of the Democratic vote, and only 72% of the Republican vote. He’s got Trump taking independents from Biden by 32 points.
He’s got Biden winning 25% of the GOP vote.
If you believe these totals…you’re basically saying you’re in favor of electing a Liberal Democrat.
Right now it looks like Morris has scored again.
He predicted Trump in a landslide and Biden won.
His record remains unblemished. He is always wrong.
Think of the implications. A person can move to Las Vegas and make a phenomenal living betting against Morris’ predictions.
In addition, presidential candidates who spend billions campaigning can stop campaigning and stop spending money. They only have to slip Morris enough money to predict that their opponent wins. That would seal it for them. A hundred thousand dollars should do it.