Educated guessing.
His expertise is contradicted by others just as expert in the field. He should be openly debating his opinions with other experts, IMO.
Mechanics con customers and make mistaken diagnoses, as do doctors and scientists.
Any prediction is to some degree rolling the dice, in science or in business. You do the best you can with the data that you have.
If only there were someway to have much more extensive data about the spread of this pandemic. That would be useful.
What is the consensus among all those experts? And what makes you think he isn’t?
I’m not going to disagree, it’s been like 100 years since last major pandemic. So we had little to go on IMO.
I like probability theory. The things that pop up around here when no one is looking keep me nice and busy. lol
Point taken.
POTUS
I gave up on probabilities…didn’t like my odds.
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…until it doesn’t perpetuate your political agenda? Then it’s…bad science. 
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You mean…like how Judy Mikovitz reacted when her murine virus as cause of chronic fatigue syndrome study got shot to hell?
Yes…scientists are human…they don’t like to hear when they got it wrong.
Most of them don’t end up as conspiracy theorists whining that “The System” is out to get them like Mikovitz did.
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It appears there are misconceptions about scientists. They absolutely love to criticize a fellow scientist’s work. Love it!
Should sit in research reviews for enlightenment. Some are absolutely brutal!
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Link to epidemiologists contradicting Fauci’s views that opening too soon would lead to a set back in controlling the virus?
How do you guys feel about trusting a man who has lied to you hundreds of times?
feel good?
Some of the division in views of the virus may stem from a wide divergence in trusted sources of information about it. Republicans are more apt to say that they trust the information they get about coronavirus from Trump (84%) than they are to say they trust the information they get from Dr. Anthony Fauci (61%), the nation’s top infectious disease expert, or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (72%). Among Democrats, just 4% say they trust the information they get from the President, well behind the 81% who say they trust Fauci or the 80% who trust the CDC.
amazing <3
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When they say “trust the science”, they don’t mean that you’re supposed to trust the actual science, they mean you’re supposed to trust the liberal with a college degree. If you suggest they listen to Patrick Moore, they tell you he’s not a real scientist because he doesn’t agree with the “science”.
That’s my biggest problem with leftists that preach science. They assume no one can look at the data and come to a conclusion unless they have a college degree in that specific field. When 30,000 individuals come to a different conclusion looking at the data, they completely dismiss them because they don’t have a degree in climate change. Well, it’s a little convenient. Kind of like saying anyone that isn’t a college educated preacher cannot have an opinion on Christianity. We all have the ability to look at data and come to a conclusion and we all have just as much chance of being right as some guy with a degree. Seriously, how many times have they managed to get the numbers on Covid correct?
Why the hell would I trust Obama?
ETA: Or Schiff. Or Schumer. Or …we could do this all day…
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What you’re failing to see in those numbers is the partisan responses. Some of us will say we trust Trump just to trigger the left. I’ve answered several polling calls just to mock the poll. I don’t trust ANYONE in DC, though if I had to choose establishment critter or Trump, I’ll choose Trump. The guy, like him or hate him, is an open book. He cannot keep his mouth shut so you know exactly what he’s thinking at all times. That’s not necessarily a great thing and I wish he would be a bit different but so far, aside from the Covid shut down and massive spending that resulted, I’ve been ok with Trump’s policies.
What I find funny is the following:
The left accused him of Russia collusion, yet the left actually colluded with Russia to create a phony dossier to attack Trump, then used it to try to run him out of office.
The left accused Trump of QPQ with the Ukraine, yet Biden is on record ADMITTING to QPQ with the Ukraine.
The left accused Trump of not acting fast enough on Covid, yet they are on record calling him a racist for … uh… ACTING early on Covid with his Chinese travel ban.
At this point, when the left accuses him of lying, I think it’s safe to say that the real lies are coming from the left. Just look at Adam Schiff.
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No…critiques of people’s conclusion are based on their methodologies on how they handled the data to come to their conclusions.
All that’s needed for that is a good background in statistics and data analysis.
And no…it is a fallacy to say “we all have the ability to look at the data and come to a conclusion and we all have as much chance of being right as some guy with a degree”. This is just a fancy way of saying “everyone’s opinion is equally valid”.
If you don’t know how to properly analyze data or do stats, then your opinion is nowhere close to being “equally valid” or that you have an “equal probability of being correct”.
No, it’s not a fallacy. A degree isn’t a magic decoder ring.
If you want entertainment, go back to college at the age of 50 and get a degree. I’ve been doing that for the last 2 years and it’s entertaining as hell. Some of the nonsense they teach is just idiotic. I used to have more respect for a degree but since I’ve been working on one, it’s clear that it’s a joke.
By the way, I didn’t say everyone’s opinion is equally valid. I said that it doesn’t take a scientist with a degree to come to a valid conclusion. Some people come to idiotic conclusions and that includes a lot of these scientists.
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