Way too early Iowa polling

From RCP in potential head to heads:

Iowa: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Trump 53, Harris 47 Trump +6
Iowa: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Trump 52, Warren 48 Trump +4
Iowa: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 51, Trump 49 Biden +2
Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Trump 50, Sanders 49 Trump +1
Iowa: Trump vs. O’Rourke Emerson Trump 53, O’Rourke 47 Trump +6
Iowa: Trump vs. Gillibrand Emerson Trump 54, Gillibrand 46 Trump +8
Iowa: Trump vs. Brown Emerson Trump 55, Brown 46 Trump +9
Iowa: Trump vs. Warren vs. Schultz Emerson Trump 49, Warren 40, Schultz 11 Trump +9

Some interesting things here:

  1. Has a Democrat ever won the presidency without winning Iowa ? not that I can find, at least not in last few decades.

  2. Trump’s chances for re-election are much better than most people think. Incumbent will always have an advantage here since we haven’t not reelected one since 1992 - no matter how many seats the opposition party may gain in midterms, it’s not always a bellwether for presidential. His negatives aside, and there are plenty, a lot of the country still likes him in the White House - or at the very least, prefers him to the alternatives.

  3. Far left candidates are still viewed with some suspicion, in middle america especially. Talk of getting rid of private insurance may play well on coasts, but you need more than just the coasts.

  4. Liberals may have been right about Schultz helping Trump as the last poll shows.

Obviously way too early. But Iowa numbers are less important than these Michigan numbers:

Michigan: Trump vs. Biden Detroit News/WDIV-TV Biden 53, Trump 40 Biden +13
Michigan: Trump vs. Warren Detroit News/WDIV-TV Warren 46, Trump 43 Warren +3
Michigan: Trump vs. Harris Detroit News/WDIV-TV Harris 47, Trump 42 Harris +5
Michigan: Trump vs. Sanders Detroit News/WDIV-TV Sanders 52, Trump 41 Sanders +11

If these hold up over time(which they won’t as all polls won’t) Trump is ■■■■■■■ He needs a lot of things to fall perfectly for him again and if he isn’t even close tow inning Michigan then I don’t see a path.


Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. These are the three states the dem candidate will be all over this coming election.

So , again. Has a Democrat won a presidency without winning Iowa and if they have, when was the last time ?

I could possibly see Trump losing the popular vote but winning the electoral and a second term.

I think the Dems will take back Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. But not so sure about Florida and Ohio. Beyond that I haven’t paid much attention to the path to victory playing with those states.

And it’s wayyyyyy too early for polling. The Dem candidate hasn’t been solidified. And so many of those candidates are unknowns.

I see that Biden is leading in the states, but I don’t think that he’ll make it out of the primary. I saw a video where he’s yelling at young people telling them that they should have nothing to complain about. Okay… that doesn’t sound like a winning strategy.

“I don’t care about you, but vote for me!!” <= Doesn’t sound good…

Or…if those polls are even correct.

If he is the only centrist running he definitely will make it far. Only one can be left standing of the far left candidates they will be mauling each other.

The field so far seems pretty balanced with centrist and left candidates.

Biden - Center
Sanders - Left
O’Rourke - Center
Harris - Center/Left
Warren - Left
Booker - Center
Bloomberg - Center
Castro - ???
Gabbard - Left
Brown- Left
Klobuchar - ???
Gillibrand - Center

Got a video of that? A link perhaps?

Here you go!

Thank you, and he was 100% correct.

Biden compared the complaints of millennials to what he experienced growing up in the 1960s and '70s, mentioning the civil rights and women’s liberation movements that were gaining traction simultaneously with the Vietnam War, making the United States a troubling place for young activists at the time

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This is an election. Telling your constituents and voters to go pound sand is a bad idea. Just like Hillary Clinton and her surrogates said the jobs weren’t coming back and you need to get used to it was a bad idea

Someone else had it worse so I can completely dismiss you?

He’s right though. Lol!
I am very sure most voters will agree with him, including many conservative voters who feel the same way.

Has Biden announced?

I don’t think so. I just took it from a realclearpolitics poll.

But I think everyone has pretty much been running since the coronation collapsed.

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That is fair. I didn’t know for sure. I’ve been somewhat touch-and-go lately on who has stated they are seeking the nomination, and with the news cycle running so fast, I thought maybe I missed something.

Well, I don’t think it’s wise to ignore or mock vast voting members of the electorate. And there’s 80,000,000 millennials of voting age.

Not 100%. He’s somewhat correct. Article correctly points out that economically, millennials are doing worse - much more likely to be saddled with a ton of student debt, but have less purchasing power despite a higher percentage of them having advanced degrees.

Btw, I think people would vote for Biden anyhow . He’s just one of these guys almost everyone would love to have a beer with :beers:

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