From RCP in potential head to heads:
|Iowa: Trump vs. Harris||Emerson||Trump 53, Harris 47||Trump +6|
|Iowa: Trump vs. Warren||Emerson||Trump 52, Warren 48||Trump +4|
|Iowa: Trump vs. Biden||Emerson||Biden 51, Trump 49||Biden +2|
|Iowa: Trump vs. Sanders||Emerson||Trump 50, Sanders 49||Trump +1|
|Iowa: Trump vs. O’Rourke||Emerson||Trump 53, O’Rourke 47||Trump +6|
|Iowa: Trump vs. Gillibrand||Emerson||Trump 54, Gillibrand 46||Trump +8|
|Iowa: Trump vs. Brown||Emerson||Trump 55, Brown 46||Trump +9|
|Iowa: Trump vs. Warren vs. Schultz||Emerson||Trump 49, Warren 40, Schultz 11||Trump +9|
Some interesting things here:
Has a Democrat ever won the presidency without winning Iowa ? not that I can find, at least not in last few decades.
Trump’s chances for re-election are much better than most people think. Incumbent will always have an advantage here since we haven’t not reelected one since 1992 - no matter how many seats the opposition party may gain in midterms, it’s not always a bellwether for presidential. His negatives aside, and there are plenty, a lot of the country still likes him in the White House - or at the very least, prefers him to the alternatives.
Far left candidates are still viewed with some suspicion, in middle america especially. Talk of getting rid of private insurance may play well on coasts, but you need more than just the coasts.
Liberals may have been right about Schultz helping Trump as the last poll shows.