Did you look at the weapons Ukraine has? They have MRL systems, they have artillery systems, they have SSMS. I’m not going to say they have planes or helicopters because if they do, they’re not using them. They have ADA systems and they have tanks and APC’s. The question isn’t whether they have them, or know how to use them, its whether they have the tactical ability and knowledge to deploy them in offensive operations.
Ukraine is not going to win by sitting back in defense and waiting for the next attack. That recipe leads to Ukraine having to defend everywhere and attack nowhere while it leaves Russia the option to attack anywhere and defend nowhere. It’s a loser for Ukraine. If they’re going to win, they’re going to have to go on offense sometime. Now, before Russia is ready for its next offensive, is that time.
Given they do have all these weapons systems already, resupply is not escalation (not that I give a ■■■■ what Putin thinks about it in the first place). There is no reason why we should consider resupplying them with any systems they already had an escalation of anything and Putin has no vote on that, nor does his opinion matter, nor should it be considered. It is not our options that are limited in this, it’s Putin’s.
He can escalate to a nuclear option, or he can take his ass whoopin, because there’s no way in hell he can defeat NATO without going nuclear. They don’t even need us over there to do it. At this point if he wanted to invade a NATO country they could kick his ass without us. And there is no way China will allow him to go nuclear. Do you think China does not know that if he pulls the nuclear card there’s no way in hell we leave China as the world dominant superpower? They would be our first target, and they know it. If they weren’t, we’re really stupid.
It’s not the disinformation it’s the egging on for the Ukrainians to fight this fight for their hatred of Putin. And while he is an easy character to hate turning Ukraine into Syria is not in the Ukrainians best interests.
The ones I talk to want the war to be over. 1/10th of the country are refugees, largest amount since WW2 has left their home and seen their lives ruined. Modern cities resembles Aleppo. I have been to Mariupol it was one of their prettiest cities outside of Lviv in Ukraine. It is home to Azovstal, which is one of the biggest steel manufacturing in Europe now junk.
They only had a limited number of Soviet era 50 mile range FROGs and 70 mile range SSMs. Neither system was very accurate. I suspect many were destroyed by Russian long range missile strikes on their bases on the first day. I base that on seeing no reports of Ukrainian SSM strikes, including against that convoy. It would have been the perfect target, yet no strikes.
Putin seems to be focused on keeping NATO forces out of Ukraine. He still has 3 levels of escalation available in Ukraine. I fully expect the new commander to use the first to scorch the Earth at the point of attack for his forces.
I find you proposal to launch against China also in the face of a Russian attack on the US interesting. Just how do you plan to sell that?
It’s pretty much the best in the world. It certainly has the best combat record of any third generation main battle tank. From what I can recall there’s never been one lost to an enemy MBT. There’s been a few lost to friendly fire from other Abrams (mainly during Desert Storm) and anti-tank mines. And I think one was disabled by a tandem warhead RPG-29 back in Iraq 2. But it’s fewer than two dozen lost out of nearly 6000 produced. No other tank has a record that good in the post WWII era.
The only downside to the Abrams is that it’s fuel economy, even by MBT standards, is awful. A result of the turbine engine. That’s not a problem for the United States with our world beating logistics system, but it does limit its appeal to other smaller militaries who lack the logistics capabilities to support it. There are companies who have designed kits to swap the Honeywell turbine for a MTU diesel from the Leopard 2 as a drop in, but so far there’s been no customers.
But realistically speaking, there some key advantages to the turbine over the MTU diesel. It’s significantly lighter, making engine swaps in the field much easier. It also has better throttle response and acceleration, since the turbine itself is constantly running in its peak power band. It’s also the most capable multi fuel engine in the world; it will run on any type of fuel. As long as it will combust, the Honeywell can use it. Kerosene, Diesel, JP-8, Gasoline, E-85 biofuel you name it and it’ll run on it. It’s also significantly quieter than a 1500 horsepower class Diesel engine and it’s generally more reliable since it has fewer parts so less to go wrong.
sell what? you don’t think even for a second we’d leave china an unscathed and sole superpower do you? we wouldn’t. we can’t. we won’t.
if putin wanted to keep nato out of ukraine, the only thing he had to do was nothing. you don’t think he knew that?
i doubt seriously they have a lot of fae’s. if they did, they would have used more than the one it seems they did. still, they’ve got to have more than one. will they use them any more effectively than the first? they don’t seem to have the best targeting. likely due to their over reliance on massive artillery and using area fire tactics.
that said, ukraine likely doesn’t have great targeting either. that doesn’t change the fact however, that if they just sit back and defend, they will lose.
I am not apologizing for Putin my position is the same as it was during the buildup of Russian forces on the Ukrainian border with Russia screaming Ukraine must not join NATO in which everyone (Besides President Macron) pondered the question “What if the Ukraine was like Finland”.
Every other NATO member said it’s a non starter. So while yes the blame is on Putin for invading the west has been brushing his Ukraine must remain neutral demands for the last 20 years. Maybe a statesmen (Which isn’t in office) like JFK might have brokered a deal keeping Ukraine neutral out of NATO in exchange of guarantees for Ukraine to stay a country and not be invaded. They sure can’t join NATO now.
4.5 Ukrainian refugees 11-12% of their population have fled the country will slip back into third world country status after this. Are we 100% that if we would have done diplomacy with Russia and guaranteed Ukraine stay neutral they would have invaded anyways?
It’s the same news every day x amount of women and children killed on a train a playground they are running out of food but Putin is getting weaker. Meantime India and China hasn’t stopped buying cheaper oil from Russia hell not even Europe stopped buying oil from Russia that would be just us because that’s what people do during record high inflation.
They are fighting because of NATO and lesser extent the EU. We have been on this trip before Russia warns NATO on expanding eastward we ignore; and their bluff was called until the day it isn’t.
complete ■■■■■■■■■ ukraine could not join nato so long as their territorial dispute with russia over crimea was unsettled. its against nato rules. putin knew that. the nato schtick is nothing more than the excuse he used for his desire to expand the russian empire.
Eh… there’s so many variables that could determine how it would turn out.
But any way it goes, civilization is getting set back to the Middle Ages. And that’s one of the more positive outcomes. That only occurs if the nuclear winter is relatively livable and fairly short. Which is a possibility.
But the Russian Federation, United States, most of Europe, China, Japan and most of the rest of the global “north” will no longer exist as their current political states. The direct damage will be impossible for most of the global north to recover from in any reasonable timeframe and these countries will fall completely apart.
And considering CONUS and European Russia will suffer the vast majority of detonations, it’s likely that our mutual populations would dwindle to a max of 20 million people. The US government would be essentially gone. The Russian government would likely suffer the same fate. There would be civil conflicts all over both former nations.
And there is the rub, Ukraine can’t win a defensive war of attrition. And I’m not referring to the pre conflict NATO membership thing. He doesn’t want NATO (US) combat power on the ground in Ukraine during this fight. Seems Finland is going to petition for NATO membership in the next couple of months.
and yes, exactly right. thats why they should attempt to take the south back before russia is ready. maybe they get it back, maybe they don’t. but by putting pressure on the russian forces in the south, they interrupt russia’s plan and start making russia respond to them
Right now would seem the best time to negotiate for a peace settlement. I am not sure how waiting it out for Russia to get their logistics in order is in Ukraine’s best interests. I can also see a scenerio WMD’s might be used the longer this drags on.
Ukraine is not a country exactly rolling in cash and for them to rebuild without external help will be next to impossible. And with the cost of materials at an all time high combined with inflation they are less likely to get help from abroad, and loosing so much population to refugees they might not be able to rebuild.
Mariupol one of their biggest economic cities the size of Minneapolis is literally gone.
