Trend Continues (Aug Edition): Less Revenue From Tax Bill

As I described in my last thread, we are continuing to pull in less revenue due to the tax bill. With the exception of April, which had an increased amount of revenue due to CY2017 receipts, every single month since the tax bill has gone into effect has resulted in less revenue than the same month in 2017. Combined with real wage growth being 0 for May and June [1], I think we can confidently put the nail in the coffin of supply side economics and the ridiculous assertion that tax cuts pay for themselves.

FY 2017 .
October 221692
November 199875
December 319204
January 344069
February 171713
March 216584
April 455605
May 240418
June 338660
July 232040
August 226311
September 348722
Year-to-Date 3,314,894
FY 2018 .
October 235341
November 208374
December 325797
January 361038
February 155623
March 210832
April 510447
May 217075
June 314000
July 225000

We are not only $23 billion above the same point in FY2017. With two more months to go in FY2018, we could very well hit a net negative YOY gain which I don’t think has ever happened in a non-recession year. Amazing.


Thanks obama!

You must be lost.

Is the GOP making the tax cut a prominent theme in their mid-term campaigns?

I thought this was the point where we thank obama. Are you all not doing that anymore??

But voodoo argle bargle winning!

Nope, still too early to make that call, no reasonable supply sider would say you should expect a short term gain in revenue, it’s a long term proposition. It hasn’t even really taken effect yet. I haven’t filed taxes under the reduced rates yet.

Just long enough so that conservative voters forget that cutting taxes for rich people does jack **** for them and fall for it all over again a few years from now.


Yes, let’s thank Obama for a piece of legislation that was passed solely by the GOP a year after he left office which results in a net negative YOY growth during an expansion period. Go troll somewhere else.


How long does it take for the supply side fairies to make an appearance?

So exactly which numbers are we thanking obama for from this point forward?? Just to be clear.

All, some, none??

Please provide a list.

Just give it 50 more years.

There’s a huge tax cut and the revenue generated is less than 1% a part. The full benefit hasn’t even come close to being realized yet. This is fantastic news. I can’t wait to see next year when increased business investments kick in from the tax cut.

In this case, the number being discussed is directly related to a piece of Trump legislation. I mean, we get it-you’re trolling, but it shouldn’t need to be explained.

I have no idea what your first sentence means.

What is fantastic news?

What business investments are you referring to?

Why are tax revenues cratering when the economy is booming?

Look at the total revenue up to July in both years and total it. The two years are less than 1% a part. I’m sure that most business owners are cautious and will wait until the end of the year when the fiscal year is completed to do a financial analysis of what it meant to their bottom line after tax income and then decide how best to utilize it. That’s what I’m doing and I’m sure I’m far from being the only one?

So you haven’t paid anything to the IRS this year? I think they’d want to talk to you about that.

You’ve also outlined the fundamental concept of supply sliders. Wait long enough and tax receipts always go up. It’s impossible to lose.

Yawn! We wont really know how the economy truly is till after this quarter is finished! All signs point to a good quarter!

Exactly! The better the economy, the lower the taxes. We should be celebrating higher deficits because it means we are getting free government?

More tax cuts will increase revenue…