No, I don’t think he was tied. He was pretty much in line with what the Selzer poll said he was going to be.
What am I missing here ? The Selzer poll was one point off . 
selzers poll in sep 2020
tied
two weeks before that trump +1, a few weeks before that Trump +10. They bounce around like a beach ball
didn’t actually look at the link huh?
my bad, sep 2020
From September it’s tied. So what ? The one closest to the election date is what matters most, does it not ?
does being lucky make them accurate?
no, accuracy is not a one day thing. Their poll is up and down like a yoyo. At no time was Biden ever tied with Trump in IA
quite unhappy you. will be more unhappy next week when the votes are counted.
Allan
I will bookmark this post just on the chance trump wins.
its a 50/50 race. everyone knows its going to be close.
women hate trump.
men love him,
generally speaking.
GOTV will tell the tale.
Allan
1 Like
You’re basing this off of one questionable poll in September of 2020.
Ok, so name one pollster that you feel is more reputable. If we search going back some years, you don’t think we’ll find one single poll that looks odd from that source ?
not one poll in 2020, they did the same thing this year. Up and down like a yoyo. Do you really think there’s been a 7 point swing in IA over the last month? One that no-one but them sees?
They did the same thing in 2020, Trump +10 to Tied to Trump +7. None of it was real.
so who should I believe is more likely to be accurate?
Emerson? One of the most accurate pollsters over the last 20 years who’s polls are consistent?
Cygnal? A republican pollster with the same accuracy score as Seltzer and more consistency?
Or Seltzer, who only polls in one state and who’s polls bounce around like a beach ball?
Plus, look at the questions they asked. they didn’t even ask about party affiliation. How do you conduct a poll without asking that?
Ok so I just took the first one you cited and it took me less than five second to find this
and this:
You see, if your goal is to discredit a pollster - any pollster - it’s extremely easy to go on a fishing expedition to find past polls that weren’t great. That’s simply the nature of the polling industry.
Btw, I do think this Selzer poll is an outlier and Trump is very likely to win Iowa.
Its not about one poll. Its about Seltzers haphazard results bouncing from one extreme to the other in successive polls every year. Likely a result of them not asking party affiliation which makes their polls unreliable at best. How do you do a poll without asking party affiliation? Not even they know how many democrats vs republicans vs independents they polled. They weight by congressional district, gender and age
missed a few days traveling to California. 
nov 1st polls
good news for trump
—————————-
pennsylvania +2
arizona +1
arizona +3
arizona +1
arizona +1
wisconsin +1
nevada +6
nevada +1
north carolina +1
north carolina +1
georgia +1
georgia +2
me-2 +5
good news for no one
—————————-
pennsylvania E
pennsylvania E
michigan E
michigan E
good news for harris
—————————-
Massachusetts +30
pennsylvania +2
pennsylvania +3
pennsylvania +4
pennsylvania +1
wisconsin +4
wisconsin +2
michigan +3
michigan +3
nevada +1
nevada +2
nevada +1
new mexico +6
georgia +1
california +25
california +22
virginia +7
virginia +10
maine +8
Allan
nov 2 polls
good news for harris
—————————-
iowa +3
wisconsin +2
minnesota +5
minnesota +5
maryland +23
virginia +1
good news for trump
—————————-
iowa +9
nevada +6
north carolina +4
pennsylvania +2
wisconsin +1
michigan +2
arizona +6
arizona +2
florida +7
ohio +3
missouri +14
Allan
+3 Harris in Iowa- same day another poll +7 Iowa one of them is way off that’s a 10 point difference. If polls are off again in the swing states might as well start using chicken bones to predict who will win.
2 Likes
I say we start using Hatian Vodou predictions.
3 Likes
Harris is not winning Iowa. This whole thing about women not liking Trump is a bit overblown. It doesn’t mean they will vote for Harris in droves. There are a boatload of conservative women that would never vote for Harris. Forget Trump, they’d vote for a three eyed squirrel over Harris.
While I agree that Harris winning Iowa most likely isn’t going to happen … women not liking Trump isn’t overblow. Harris is polling better with Women than Trump.
Newsweek looked at the national polls since October 28 that provide a breakdown of voting intention based on gender and found that on average, women break for Harris by 8 points, while men break for Trump by 10 points. That amounts to an average gender gap of 9 points
He’s also got a huge gap with Zillenials, who can actually vote in this election cycle. Harris already seems to have them locked up. It’s like 60-40.
He’s gonna be relying on a huge turnout from middle age and elderly men this go round. But ya know they will probably turn out in enormous numbers. Kamala is the second coming of Lenin apparently.
1 Like
Worse than Lenin. She’s the second coming of Trotsky, an effete eastern liberal that Lenin had to have wiped out. She’s a literal TrotskyStalin in one form, with a bit of MaoChe thrown in.
2 Likes
