only 6 since biden dropped out
harris +2
harris +1
trump +1
trump +1
trump +3
trump +7 (RCP uses rasmussen-no basis in reality)
dont use biden data points.
i will smooth out gauranteed.
Allan
you forgot the senate races
Nevada democrat Brown +5
pennsylvania democrat Casey +7
harris must change the ballot splitters minds on her candidacy.
if not she is doomed.
Allan
I just think people miss the mark when they talk about this.
Senate race and Presidential race in any given state are not not same race and many people (thankfully) don’t just go into the voting booth and vote a straight party ticket.
2 Likes
i just DONT understand how one can punch the casey hole and trump hole on the same ballot.
they are diametrically opposed to each other.
Allan
Interesting subject.
Look up 2004 Presidential and Senate election in Indiana.
Both were landslides - but for opposing parties. And it’s not like Evan Bayh was a Bush Democrat… at all, in fact Bush had endorsed his opponent and filmed an ad for him.
So…where’s all this elation about Kamala coming from? Well, I guess it’s a relief to be freed from a candidate who repeatedly demonstrates mental incapacity.
for me it is relief not elation.
Reason: she’s not Biden and people have come to their senses.
Allan
Yeah, they were able to dump the grandpa into a nursing home and are now re-energized and invigorated.
1 Like
couple more swing states polls and a blue state poll
good news for Harris
—————————-
Washington +14
no good news for anyone
———————————-
Pennsylvania E
good new for trump
—————————
Michigan +3
Allan
one last late poll from yesterday.
good new for Harris
—————————
Minnesota +10
Allan
another late one from Yesterday.
good new for trump
—————————
Georgia +4
Allan
Not really, no.
It’s underperformance compared to both 2016 and 2020 Democrat election wins there.
1 Like
will win the electoral votes from washington.
its the only thing that matters.
margin doesnt matter.
Allan
Would it be considered “good news” then if she were winning by 2 points in California ?
1 Like
absolutely. the ONLY thing in UNITED STATES Presidential elections
are EVs.
Allan
If any Democrat is up single digits in a blue state like CA , they’d be in huge trouble overall.
2 Likes
each states vote is independent from each other.
even now, presidential elections are won on local issues.
how is crime affecting me?
how is the economy affecting me?
Allan
3 Likes
recent florida polls
good news for trump
—————————
Florida +7
good new for Mitch (senate race)
—————————
Scott +4 over Mucarsel-Powell
Allan
