Take any poll. Divide by the square root of your feelings.
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I actually was polled today, a telephone poll from an organization called “Public Policy” - few questions about Trump/Biden, most of them were about our local and congressional candidates, who we voted for in the last election and then the usual gender/educational level/age range/race.
First time I’ve been polled in years.
It’s better than being minus 2.
This is prolly the last election for a while that the r get Texas electoral votes.
Allan
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No need to go back to the flawless 2016 model.
An interesting trend is developing in North Carolina. Today’s poll continues it. While Trump was ahead by 2 points, Cunningham is now up by 9 points and Cooper by 13. Indicative that Cunningham is beginning to put Tillis away in the Senate race.
These polls were the same group of likely voters interviewed on all three races.
While there still may be a certain group hanging on to Trump in the Presidential race, these same people are indicating at the very least they will split their ticket and go with Cooper in the gubernatorial race and Cunningham in the Senate race.
| N.C. | AUG 16-17, 2020 | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 967 | LV | Biden | 44% | Less | Trump | +2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump | 46% | |||||||||
| Jorgensen | 2% | |||||||||
| Hawkins | 0% |
N.C. AUG 16-17, 2020 Redfield & Wilton Strategies 967 LV Cunningham 47% 38% Tillis Cunningham +9
|Governor||N.C.||AUG 16-17, 2020|Redfield & Wilton Strategies|967|LV|Cooper|51%|38%|Forest|Cooper|+13
Yesterday polls,
Good news for trump
The safiel NC poll +2
Good news for biden
Wisconsin +10
Wisconsin +6
Pennsylvania +7
Pennsylvania +7
Michigan +12
Michigan +3
Arizona +9
Florida +8
NJ +19
Lots of really good news for Biden with NC the lone bright spot for Trump
Allan
Biden’s favorability rate has increased from 40% to 45% during this past week following the Dem convention.
Yesterday’s polls
Good news for biden
Texas +1
North Carolina +3
Ohio +1
Good news for trump
Louisiana +19
Allan
Today’s polls
Good news for biden
Delaware +21
Florida +4
New York +31
No good news for trump
Allan
Interesting piece by Charlie Cook.
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Yep. A clean sweep of those states and in the bag for biden.
Michigan, pa and Wisconsin gives biden an insurmountable lead in evs.
Allan
Here is today’s consensus map.
Trump must win ALL 91 tossup electoral votes AND turn 10 EVs away from Biden.
Is it possible? Yes.
Is it plausible? Not really.
Another point Cook made.
Pollsters over sampled educated white voters in 2016 and under sampled uneducated white voters, which very much contributed to the polling errors in 2016. Pollsters have corrected their sampling for 2020 and so what the polls are showing is a much more accurate depiction of the situation than in 2016.
They definitely did some wrong in polling in those states in 2016.
They were much more accurate in the mid terms in those states.
Excellent piece by a consummate professional.
Allan
Wow. I hadn’t seen this yet. Cook puts into pretty straight forward verbiage what I have been feeling for a while, but have been too afraid to accept. Trump legitimately could go down in 70 days.
Today’s polls
Good news for biden
Wisconsin +5
Pennsylvania +3
North Carolina +1
Michigan +6
Florida +3
Arizona +2
Good news for trump
None.
Allan
Tillis continues to fade in North Carolina.
The same sample that gave Biden +1 gave Cunningham +10.
In that case, I look forward to you predicting a careering freight train in Trump support as we approach November.
I have yet to see even a caboose yet.
Never mind a freight train.
The canary in the coal mine are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan.
They are blue right now. Things can change but there is not trend in those states toward trump at the present time.
Allan
