RCP has Texas as even for Biden/Trump. What the Hell?

[anon91495210]

Tell RCP, it came from their website… and notice I put the little ~ in front of 30 days, that means ABOUT 30 days out.

[W_and_C]

@WuWei

@W_and_C

@WuWei

@W_and_C

@WuWei

@Yossarian

@WuWei

@Forcefield

@WuWei

Biden is a racist.

Better warn all those black voters and his BFF Barack Hussein Obama!

Clean, articulate

“Look at my African American over here”

you ain’t black

Oh settle down , you two. Can we just agree that everyone is a racist ?

As long as we agree Biden is.

Well, Biden is included in “everyone”, so …

By name.

This reminds me of discussion I’ve been witnessing of late on whether or not women defecate.

“Everybody poops”.
“Yeah, but do girls ?”

[NuffSaid]

@W_and_C

@NuffSaid

@W_and_C

@anon91495210

The dates are quite different and I don’t seem to find anything from 2016 up to July. Your stuff starts around August for the most part but let’s look at something fun… Michigan:

Interesting enough, let’s look at some other data:
~ 30 days out from the election, Hillary led:
Pennsylvania: +9
Michigan: +10.7
Ohio: +2.4
Florida: + 2.4
Wisconsin: + 6.8
Arizona: +1.0
North Carolina: + 2.6
Final results:
Pennsylvania: -0.7
Michigan: -0.3
Ohio: -8.1
Florida: -1.2
Wisconsin: -0.7
Arizona: -3.5
North Carolina: -3.7

I’ll worry about the polls in November. There is a massive amount of information that has to come out yet and I think as people hear from Biden directly, they’ll reject him.

Wow, that’s pretty crazy. I was looking at WI before, didn’t realize all these other states were so badly predicted.

Those numbers are not accurate for 2016:
One month out (Oct 4th) had the following:
Arizona - Trump +2.5
Pennsylvania - Clinton +5.4
Michigan - Clinton +5.7
Ohio - Trump +2.5
Florida - Clinton +2.9
Wisconsin - Clinton +5.5
North Carolina - Clinton +1.1

Even with those corrections, polling failed pretty badly

It was off, and in some cases by a lot. Whatever the reasonings were, pollsters were forced to revamp their polling stats and formulas.

[NuffSaid]

@anon91495210

Tell RCP, it came from their website… and notice I put the little ~ in front of 30 days, that means ABOUT 30 days out.

I did go to RCP, each state, and used the graphs from one month out.

[W_and_C]

@NuffSaid

@W_and_C

@NuffSaid

@W_and_C

@anon91495210

The dates are quite different and I don’t seem to find anything from 2016 up to July. Your stuff starts around August for the most part but let’s look at something fun… Michigan:

Interesting enough, let’s look at some other data:
~ 30 days out from the election, Hillary led:
Pennsylvania: +9
Michigan: +10.7
Ohio: +2.4
Florida: + 2.4
Wisconsin: + 6.8
Arizona: +1.0
North Carolina: + 2.6
Final results:
Pennsylvania: -0.7
Michigan: -0.3
Ohio: -8.1
Florida: -1.2
Wisconsin: -0.7
Arizona: -3.5
North Carolina: -3.7

I’ll worry about the polls in November. There is a massive amount of information that has to come out yet and I think as people hear from Biden directly, they’ll reject him.

Wow, that’s pretty crazy. I was looking at WI before, didn’t realize all these other states were so badly predicted.

Those numbers are not accurate for 2016:
One month out (Oct 4th) had the following:
Arizona - Trump +2.5
Pennsylvania - Clinton +5.4
Michigan - Clinton +5.7
Ohio - Trump +2.5
Florida - Clinton +2.9
Wisconsin - Clinton +5.5
North Carolina - Clinton +1.1

Even with those corrections, polling failed pretty badly

It was off, and in some cases by a lot. Whatever the reasonings were, pollsters were forced to revamp their polling stats and formulas.

I don’t know if they were. I posted this article in another thread.

Elissa Slotkin Is Sounding the Alarm. Will Democrats Listen?

Very long article but here’s the gist:

[WuWei]

@wiley8425

Better a racist than a racist AND a maniac. Acceptable losses shouldn’t be a campaign slogan.

Well, that’s progress.

[Konssurvative1]

Are you Charlie Sheen or Emilio Estevez?

“That was then, This is now”

[WuWei]

Get away from those people.

[W_and_C]

@WuWei

Get away from those people.

No way dude, I like women

[Konssurvative1]

Well…here’s the thing…when I get a polling phone call…I tell them Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump. and I have no intention of voting for Trump.

LOL…It’s hysterical…

[NuffSaid]

@W_and_C

@NuffSaid

@W_and_C

@NuffSaid

@W_and_C

@anon91495210

The dates are quite different and I don’t seem to find anything from 2016 up to July. Your stuff starts around August for the most part but let’s look at something fun… Michigan:

Interesting enough, let’s look at some other data:
~ 30 days out from the election, Hillary led:
Pennsylvania: +9
Michigan: +10.7
Ohio: +2.4
Florida: + 2.4
Wisconsin: + 6.8
Arizona: +1.0
North Carolina: + 2.6
Final results:
Pennsylvania: -0.7
Michigan: -0.3
Ohio: -8.1
Florida: -1.2
Wisconsin: -0.7
Arizona: -3.5
North Carolina: -3.7

I’ll worry about the polls in November. There is a massive amount of information that has to come out yet and I think as people hear from Biden directly, they’ll reject him.

Wow, that’s pretty crazy. I was looking at WI before, didn’t realize all these other states were so badly predicted.

Those numbers are not accurate for 2016:
One month out (Oct 4th) had the following:
Arizona - Trump +2.5
Pennsylvania - Clinton +5.4
Michigan - Clinton +5.7
Ohio - Trump +2.5
Florida - Clinton +2.9
Wisconsin - Clinton +5.5
North Carolina - Clinton +1.1

Even with those corrections, polling failed pretty badly

It was off, and in some cases by a lot. Whatever the reasonings were, pollsters were forced to revamp their polling stats and formulas.

I don’t know if they were. I posted this article in another thread.

Elissa Slotkin Is Sounding the Alarm. Will Democrats Listen? - POLITICO

Very long article but here’s the gist:

I really think that all campaigns are doing a lot more due diligence and internal polling interpretation. Am I saying she is wrong and that Trump supporters are being undercounted? No. And I certainly do not count Trump out. There’s plenty of convas to paint in the next 4 months. Biden’s campaign cannot get lazy and assume that they are going to coast to a victory.

[NuffSaid]

@Konssurvative1

Well…here’s the thing…when I get a polling phone call…I tell them Trump Trump Trump Trump Trump. and I have no intention of voting for Trump.

LOL…It’s hysterical…

You are tik tokking them.
Trump’s gonna be mad at you.

[anon91495210]

Full disclosure, let’s go to exactly October 8th. . .

[Konssurvative1]

I know I know…He’s already mad at me because I wear a facemask.

[W_and_C]

@anon91495210

Full disclosure, let’s go to exactly October 8th. . .

Do you have one of these for final polling before the election ?

[amadeus]

Trump wins in Louisiana. But at least I can vote by mail. Far out.

[NuffSaid]

PA was Clinton +2.1 last poll before election.

[anon91495210]

Again, I grabbed data from their site about a month out… my numbers were originally from RCP but some of my links aren’t good anymore. They were more than just Trump -vs- Clinton which is what’s present there now.

[NuffSaid]

Here’s the link that I used for PA.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_clinton-5633.html

[Blackwolf]

@Optrader

It’s the VP they pick for him that is important. SHE will be the only reason that Biden could pull off a victory. They just need to pick a woman who meets as many politically correct characteristics as possible. Black/ minority, lesbian/ transgender, handicapped etc. Throw in Socialist/communist, atheist or Muslim and Trump doesn’t stand a chance. Biden will be removed by the 25th amendment, or suffer some health crisis that will force him to step down for the good of the party…

Eleventy dimensional.