Trade with all; entangling alliances with none?
1 Like
America decided it could unilaterally invade another country it deemed to be a threat.
Not all of NATO went along with it but they all kept quiet and got in line eventually because America calls the shots.
Russia is now invading another country it deems to be a threat.
Might is right, the big countire get to do what they want because they have a nuclear deterant.
If youre a small country you either join an alliance or risk the same fate.
Or get your own nukes, ala North Korea and Iran.
Its a mess, noone is blameless.
Oversimplification aside, you make some fair points.
For some reason I am thinking of English attempts at hegemony, Ireland and the Falklands.
Difference of scale, no doubt.
Hegemony is fascinating to me, at every level. Entropy is another favorite.
Fitting history into a forum like this is always a grotesque simplification, but I genuinely believe the decision to invade Iraqi was the worst strategic error since Vietnam.
The UK is still haunted by our history of empire and hegemony. The best foreign policy we could have would be to get back back in our box but we insist on punching above our weight.
But it would be a mistake for America to retreat into isolationism. Russie fulfiling its strategic aims in Ukraine will make the world a more dangerous place.
I disagree with pretty much all of that post except for:
I think all the old hegemons could do with a contraction and some patience.
Why?
Not that I mentioned isolationism, but why?
I believe there are events that create far greater change globally or at least regionally at the time. And the impact of that change probably can’t be estimated or prepared for.
I believe COVID to be one of them.
I don’t believe Putin’s invasion of Ukraine or Iraq to be among them.
If Russia gets what it wants then whats to stop China going the same in Taiwan, India in Kashmir, Saudia Arabia in Yemen or a million other places where theres a grievence.
Not to mention the ethics of it, bullies should not get to win
Nothing. Nothing is stopping them now. Why does that make the world “more dangerous”?
1 Like
Something is stopping them or they would have done it.
Either fear of failure or fear of the consequences.
Balderdash. Fear of what? You think Taiwan can beat China?
No idea, i wouldnt have thought Ukraine could resist Russia for more than a few days so what do i know?
We seem to be getting off topic here.
Hegemonies trying to maintain their power dont have a great track record but I’d rather live in a unipolar world led by a democracy than whatever you’d call China, or Russia for that matter.
I don’t think we’re off topic at all.
Why?
Taiwan was a military dictatoship until the late 90s. Did very well. Now they swap between two parties every now and then, just like the US - an oligarchy.
Why is “democracy” better than any other form of government? Is England a “democracy”? The US? Is either one anything to crow about?
Voting for your choice of oligarchs makes you a “democracy”?
Here, when it changes, they spend the first year undoing what the last one did. We end up getting nothing done if it can’t be done in 4 years. And they all spend all their time campaigning. For hegemony.
Hell, I’d rather have an emperor if he’ll follow the Constitution and leave me alone.
They aren’t. The EU and US is.
The Russians learned our 1942 North Africa lesson.
Norway is called the “most democracy of democracies”, is it? How do they choose the prime minister, who controls the executive branch?
What right do of any of us have to criticize other forms of government. Or worse yet, impose them as Putin alludes to?
Oceania, Eurasia and Eastasia?
Seriously though…I’m not sure how it is going to shake out.
Our entire way of life is predicated on the old order. Especially when it comes to energy.
If significant amounts of oil begin to be denominated in currency other than dollars, we take a hit.
I think it is still some time before any currency can take our place as the reserve.
I think the issue is each power (US, China, Russia, EU) has strengths and weaknesses, so no one will be able to dominate.
I can’t see beyond the muddle we have now at the moment.
if we were smart we’d get the ukraine settled, get them into nato and then withdraw to observer status and concentrate on expanding ANZUS into a regional alliance. let the eu worry about europe while we contain china
1 Like
…
2 Likes
Why?
…
What does this tell you?
ANZ is not in our region. What can they do for us?
1 Like
