Polls and misconceptions about polls - 2022 edition

Politics
1

I keep seeing the same old false narrative (or set of talking points) repeated ad nauseam here and elsewhere. Was going to reply in a different thread about polls but feel this merits its own thread.

The points are:

  1. In 2022, pollsters were largely predicting a “red wave”.
    (No, they were not)

  2. The “red wave” never materialized.
    (True, because why would it?)

  3. Polls and pollsters were wrong.
    (No, they were not)

  4. Republicans severely underperformed the 2022 polling.
    (No, they did not and actually polling slightly favored the Dems)

  5. Ergo, let’s discount what polls are going forward.
    (Let’s not)

Truth is the 2022 polls were historically accurate and no credible pollster or individual outside of Breitbart’s comment section and maybe a few overeager MAGA partisans on Twitter was crowing about a “red wave”. Here is a good primer from Nate Silver’s site:

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2

I would note that the United Kingdom pollsters were pretty close in regards to the recent local elections.

The predicted Tory drubbing happened.

The somewhat muted Labour gains in local seats (and losses in some seats) were also accurately predicted. (Due to antisemitic backlash against Labour’s Israel stance.)

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3

I also believe that the prediction that lower level Democrats will significantly out perform Biden in November is accurate.

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4

I think polls this far out are pointless. It’s basically manufactured horse race coverage to keep the clicks coming in.

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5

With less than six months to go ? I would definitely not say pointless. FWIW, in 2020 race the polls were steady pretty much the entire way since 2019.

When you have two candidates who everyone in the country knows really well, that can happen.

But - this thread is about 2022.