Philly Fed report claims BLS jobs data overstated by 1.1 million jobs

Economy
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Overstating by 1.1 million jobs? Yikes!!
Bean counters taking their fight public?? Double yikes. something is going on/

Unless I get new information I am NOT going to allege the Biden Administration is trying to cover up anything. Whatever source of the problem, it is a problem. 1.1 million is lot.

Still, the Fed issues quarterly job reports. Their method has to be quarterly, cannot be monthly because it is detailed and presumably more accurate. Now, in a new twist I have never seen before, the Fed reports that the BLS method is overstating jobs and the actual number of job in the US is 1.1 million fewer than the BLS reports.

Excerpt below. Link at bottom

Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statisticsā€™ (BLS)
. . . Our estimates incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS
. . . In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by (BLS)

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/benchmark-revisions/early-benchmark-2022-q2-report.pdf

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image

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I knew something was ā– ā– ā– ā– ā– ā–  up.

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Any of the following -MIGHT- be true

1.) The BLS got sloppy. Itā€™s just a simple mistake.

2.) The BLS has an agenda. They are painting a rosy picture to get their boss re-elected

3.) The Philly Fed has an agenda. They want the Fed to stop raising rates so they are publicly reporting something that normally would be handled quietly.

4.) This happens all the time. I just finally heard about it now. I was wrong to post this.

I am leaning toward #2 but I cannot make that assertion without more evidence.

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There is not one fed agency that is not a corrupt wing of the dems. The fed agencies are a gordian knot.
They cannot be reformed.

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The government has never been more corrupt than it is now. Hereā€™s another link regarding this:

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Bumping this 3-month old thread because . . .

If the Philly Fed numbers were right all along,
then we may have been in some sort of recession all along.

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apples and oranges.

philly fed uses different data than BLS.

Allan

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Nonssense.

According to BLS there are 157.6 million jobs in the US economy.
According to the Philly Fed there are 156.5 million jobs in the US economy.

BLS said (In Dec) 1.1 million new jobs were added.
Philly Fed said 0.01 million new jobs were added.

Estimate the number of apples in a large pile, estimate how many apples are being added. It is still apples. Different estimates yield different numbers.

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BSā€¦.the BLS numbers are either right or wrongā€¦.

ā€œUsing different dataā€ sounds a lot like cherry picking to make things look better than they really are.

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lol. bls has always used the same data set when publishing job numbers
be the admin be obama, trump, biden etc.

its conformity remains unchanged.

Allan

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ok apples to apples, what was the philly fed number when trump president in lets say december 2019 and compare it to the bls that came out at the time

is this a new measurement or an old one?

Allan

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clearly they are using different data.

what makes their data better than the bls data?

Allan

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I donā€™t know what the Philly Fed number was before.

It is ā€œcuriousā€ that the Philly Fed chose to go public last December with the fact that itā€™s numbers donā€™t match the BLS numbers.

See post #4 this thread. (I hav not been running from it.)

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i lean toward nothing but what the facts show me.

the fact is that both numbers could be correct since its an apples to oranges comparison.

it is also true the the feds numbers are correct and the BLS are inaccurate

or that the BLS numbers are accurate and the feds are inaccurate.

or the finally possibly of them both being inaccurate.

Allan

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what did the philly fed say about feb jobs?

bls says 311,000 added.

Allan

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The link is now dead, but it worked in DEc when I posted the excerpt below.
The excerpt is copy-and-paste from teh Philly Fed.

[quote=ā€œGaius, post:1, topic:243733ā€]

Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statisticsā€™ (BLS)
. . . Our estimates incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS
. . . In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by (BLS)[/quote]

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/surveys-and-data/benchmark-revisions/early-benchmark-2022-q2-report.pdf

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wonder why it was deleted?

its like some posts on the forum.

i am proud to say i have need deleted any of posts on this forum in the past 20.

Allan

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It is still super-easy to find news stories that came out at the time.
As I mentioned near the top it is unusual for bean counters to take their fight public.

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and nothing sinceā€¦ā€¦

Allan