Overstating by 1.1 million jobs? Yikes!!
Bean counters taking their fight public?? Double yikes. something is going on/
Unless I get new information I am NOT going to allege the Biden Administration is trying to cover up anything. Whatever source of the problem, it is a problem. 1.1 million is lot.
Still, the Fed issues quarterly job reports. Their method has to be quarterly, cannot be monthly because it is detailed and presumably more accurate. Now, in a new twist I have never seen before, the Fed reports that the BLS method is overstating jobs and the actual number of job in the US is 1.1 million fewer than the BLS reports.
Excerpt below. Link at bottom
Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statisticsā (BLS)
. . . Our estimates incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS
. . . In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by (BLS)
1.) The BLS got sloppy. Itās just a simple mistake.
2.) The BLS has an agenda. They are painting a rosy picture to get their boss re-elected
3.) The Philly Fed has an agenda. They want the Fed to stop raising rates so they are publicly reporting something that normally would be handled quietly.
4.) This happens all the time. I just finally heard about it now. I was wrong to post this.
I am leaning toward #2 but I cannot make that assertion without more evidence.
According to BLS there are 157.6 million jobs in the US economy.
According to the Philly Fed there are 156.5 million jobs in the US economy.
BLS said (In Dec) 1.1 million new jobs were added.
Philly Fed said 0.01 million new jobs were added.
Estimate the number of apples in a large pile, estimate how many apples are being added. It is still apples. Different estimates yield different numbers.
The link is now dead, but it worked in DEc when I posted the excerpt below.
The excerpt is copy-and-paste from teh Philly Fed.
[quote=āGaius, post:1, topic:243733ā]
Estimates by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicate that the employment changes from March through June 2022 were significantly different in 33 states and the District of Columbia compared with current state estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statisticsā (BLS)
. . . Our estimates incorporate more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS
. . . In the aggregate, 10,500 net new jobs were added during the period rather than the 1,121,500 jobs estimated by (BLS)[/quote]
It is still super-easy to find news stories that came out at the time.
As I mentioned near the top it is unusual for bean counters to take their fight public.