North Carolina will likely have the marquee gubernatorial race of 2024 (Mississippi could be a gubernatorial anomaly in 2023)

Looks like we here in North Carolina will have the marquee gubernatorial matchup of 2024.

On the Democratic side, incumbent Roy Cooper is term limited. Josh Stein, the current two term Attorney General is Cooper’s protégé and the prohibitive favorite to win the Democratic nomination. Unlikely he will even have more than token primary opposition.

Josh Stein won big in 2016 and won bigger in 2020 for Attorney General. In other words, a man NOT to be trifled with. A very heavy threat to carry the North Carolina Statehouse for Democrats for a third consecutive time.

On the Republican side, Mark Robinson, the incumbent Lieutenant Governor, is considered the leading candidate for the Republican nomination, though by no means is his nomination guaranteed. There will be a fight on the Republican side in the primary. Robinson barely outperformed Trump in the 2020 election, but his campaign was marred by problematic comments. Not the strongest candidate Republicans could offer by any means.

Given the State’s slight tilt to the Republican Party overall, I will start this race off as PURE TOSSUP. If the expected Stein v Robinson matchup develops, I will move it to LEAN DEMOCRAT.

Even if Republicans do well in 2024 in national races, it is going to be hard to combat Stein, given his quality as a candidate.

Mississippi could shape up to be a potential upset in 2023, due to the fact that the State is in the midst of an epic cluster ■■■■ and Tate Reeve’s performance is, to say the least, uninspiring. Additionally, Reeve’s won in a very close election in 2019.

Democrats are likely to have a strong candidate in Brandon Presley in 2023.

Of course, Mississippi is a very strong Republican State.

But I will hold this race as LIKELY REPUBLICAN and not SAFE REPUBLICAN.

This is a chance for an upset here, though obviously the odds are still in Reeve’s favor.

Mark Robinson is well grounded and an establishment slap in the face. There will be many, MANY behind the scenes forces working against him. That said, if he gets the nomination, at this point in time, he’ll earn my vote.