New jobless claims "surge" 12%

I wrote “surge” in quotation marks because, while 12% week-over-week increase IS significant the total number is still low, (261,000.)

Historically, that number rises very suddenly at the beginning of a recession, (so don’t go maxing out your credit cards just yet), but the total number would be higher than 261,000.

AP (via Yahoo)

US applications for jobless benefits highest since October 2021

Thu, June 8, 2023 at 8:43 AM EDT
The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits last week rose to its highest level since October 2021, but the labor market remains one of the healthiest parts of the U.S. economy.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that U.S. applications for jobless claims were 261,000 for the week ending June 3, an increase of 28,000 from the previous week’s 233,000. Weekly jobless claims are considered representative of U.S. layoffs.

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From Bloomberg

US Jobless Claims Surge to 261,000, Highest Since October 2021

June 8, 2023 at 8:33 AM EDT

Applications for US unemployment benefits jumped last week to the highest level since October 2021, suggesting mounting layoff announcements are starting to translate into job cuts.

Initial jobless claims rose by 28,000 to 261,000 in the week ended June 3, a Labor Department report showed Thursday. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for 235,000 applications.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-06-08/us-jobless-claims-surge-to-261-000-highest-since-october-2021

If you look at a long-term picture of initial jobless claims,
the number at the beginning of the COVID lockdowns is so big
it is tough to get real information from the rest of the chart.

Below is an honest, if ham-handed, attempt to reproduce the same chart without the lockdown spike.

There have been 8 recessions since 1970.
Typically recessions don’t begin unless weekly jobless claims hit ~400,000 or so.
The red circles show when recessions begin.
The green arrows are an attempt to illustrate that the rise to 400,000 tends to come quite suddenly (6 mos? 12 mos?), but it’s not a recession yet. :sweat_smile:

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