First off, I believe the chances that Senate Republicans vote to convict Trump is less than 10%, but anything is possible with this insane president. So I made this list of the 20 most likely GOP Senators to toss Trump out of office. Feel free to remove and add senators from my list.
Retiring Senators and Old Timers
Chuck Grassley (This guy is really old and has nothing to lose)
Richard Shelby (Same as Grassley)
Pat Roberts (Retiring in 2020 and is probably really sick of Trump)
Lamar Alexander (Same as Roberts)
Johnny Isakson (Retiring because of bad health and might want to do the right thing)
Young Guns Worried About Politics in the Coming Decades
Josh Hawley (Only 39 and not running for reelection until 2024)
Todd Young (In a fairly vulnerable state and reelection is in 2022)
Marco Rubio (Obvious bad blood and in a swing state)
Ted Cruz (Even more bad blood)
Ben Sasse (Fairly independent)
Swing States Senators Running in 2020
Cory Gardner (Big target for Democrats)
Joni Ernst (Scurred)
Susan Collins (Super Scurred)
Martha McSally
Wildcards and Snakes
Rob Portman (Fairly moderate and in a swing state)
Lindsey Graham (We know his true feelings)
Rand Paul (Weirdo and not to be trusted)
Lisa Murkowski (Voted against Kavanaugh)
Mitt Romney (Obviously)
Mitch McConnell (Probably the most concerned about the future of the Republican Party)
Mitt and Susan will vote for a trial at least.
Lisa and Sally I think would convict because it’s safe. I dont think they get 67…but they get 55ish maybe almost 60…which is still fairly bad
If Democrats wanted to pull off an impeachment of a President for trying to investigate an opposition candidate, they should probably have refrained from launching an investigation of an opposition candidate in the last election. Just saying.
All these people are awful and indistinguishable to me at this point.
Now, if the Senate vote was anonymous, you could probably get Trump out: Mitch McConnell could get all his ■■■■■■ wingnut judges from Pence, etc. And the party could retool–or at least try to. Maybe. Possibly. But the base loves Trump too much at this point.
The OP assumes that Trump has committed high crimes and misteomeaners and that the only consideration in voting to keep him is the political calculation.
It wasn’t until the tapes came out that a majority of Americans thought he should leave office. More than a third of voters still supported Nixon when he resigned. That seems to be around the number that will stick with Trump no matter what.