Most Likely GOP Senators To Convict Trump

First off, I believe the chances that Senate Republicans vote to convict Trump is less than 10%, but anything is possible with this insane president. So I made this list of the 20 most likely GOP Senators to toss Trump out of office. Feel free to remove and add senators from my list.

Retiring Senators and Old Timers

  1. Chuck Grassley (This guy is really old and has nothing to lose)
  2. Richard Shelby (Same as Grassley)
  3. Pat Roberts (Retiring in 2020 and is probably really sick of Trump)
  4. Lamar Alexander (Same as Roberts)
  5. Johnny Isakson (Retiring because of bad health and might want to do the right thing)

Young Guns Worried About Politics in the Coming Decades

  1. Josh Hawley (Only 39 and not running for reelection until 2024)
  2. Todd Young (In a fairly vulnerable state and reelection is in 2022)
  3. Marco Rubio (Obvious bad blood and in a swing state)
  4. Ted Cruz (Even more bad blood)
  5. Ben Sasse (Fairly independent)

Swing States Senators Running in 2020

  1. Cory Gardner (Big target for Democrats)
  2. Joni Ernst (Scurred)
  3. Susan Collins (Super Scurred)
  4. Martha McSally

Wildcards and Snakes

  1. Rob Portman (Fairly moderate and in a swing state)
  2. Lindsey Graham (We know his true feelings)
  3. Rand Paul (Weirdo and not to be trusted)
  4. Lisa Murkowski (Voted against Kavanaugh)
  5. Mitt Romney (Obviously)
  6. Mitch McConnell (Probably the most concerned about the future of the Republican Party)

Good analysis. The effort you put in your post is appreciated.


Very well thought out post.

I don’t think many Republicans will cross the aisle and vote for a conviction. Most are spineless losers who put Trump over country.

I would like to be surprised, though.

Nixon had a lot of support at the beginning that faded after the tapes came out. I’m hoping the same will happen here. Not good odds though.

Mitt and Susan will vote for a trial at least.
Lisa and Sally I think would convict because it’s safe. I dont think they get 67…but they get 55ish maybe almost 60…which is still fairly bad

Thanks. It only took about 30 minutes.

Scary thing is that if Dems uncover something similar to the Nixon tapes, Republicans still won’t switch. It’s truly a sore spot in American history.

Obviously a lot worse information would have to come out of the impeachment inquiry. But it’s Trump, so anything is possible.

I hope you’re wrong but it’s probably a lost hope.

You know what they say about hope in one hand…

There was a Steven King book - the dead zone.

The corrupt politician held up a baby to block a would be assasin’s bullet.

It would have to be something as horrifying as that I think.

And no, I am not suggesting this scenario should take place.

If Democrats wanted to pull off an impeachment of a President for trying to investigate an opposition candidate, they should probably have refrained from launching an investigation of an opposition candidate in the last election. Just saying.


TDS is strong in the Republican Party.

All these people are awful and indistinguishable to me at this point.

Now, if the Senate vote was anonymous, you could probably get Trump out: Mitch McConnell could get all his ■■■■■■ wingnut judges from Pence, etc. And the party could retool–or at least try to. Maybe. Possibly. But the base loves Trump too much at this point.


The OP has a hidden assumption.

The OP assumes that Trump has committed high crimes and misteomeaners and that the only consideration in voting to keep him is the political calculation.

Some say that is the only calculation they make, regardless of guilt.

I think what is interesting is that an analysis of this sort was unthinkable a month ago; who knows where we will be a month or two from now?

Does it upset you that politicians have to be accountable to the people who voted them into office?

I know you love to equate Trump’s actions with the 2016 election, but they’re simply not the same in any meaningful sense.

The CEC talking heads at least get very well paid for making these claims. I don’t see what you get out of doing so.

So a gop presidential candidate wasn’t investigated under the Obama administration?


It wasn’t until the tapes came out that a majority of Americans thought he should leave office. More than a third of voters still supported Nixon when he resigned. That seems to be around the number that will stick with Trump no matter what.