Despite the “slowing” the overall trend is unchanged.
Bigger, picture, employment of persons born here has flat-lined, like a heart attack, &
employment of persons coming in over the border is surging.
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I think I usually present the chart this way, re-centering it on Jan 2020
so we can focus on post-pandemic trends
Despite the fact that the headlines above a muted or negative
“my” view shows April was mildly positive.
Employment of persons born here increased by 866,000 persons in April.
Employment of border criminals dropped by 632,000 in April.
Neither of those is a huge change, but both are small steps in the right direction.
Rosy government figures about jobs and the economy are mainly a result of creative accounting. Expect a stream of “downward revisions” after the November elections.
A basic issue is that number of jobs keeps increasing, but the number of people employed has been stagnant. The reality is that many people are working two or three part-time jobs to try to make ends meet since they cannot find full-time employment. Others are chronically unemployed and not included in the labor force.
On the late pre-pandemic US employment / US labor force stayed in the 79-81% range.
Right now, that measure of employment languishes at 78% which is recession levels (red circles) and I see no convincing reason to believe it is improving.
But as far as the April-specific changes go, well, there basically weren’t any .
Hmm,
Looking at that again, I am not sure I used the correct denominator. The correct one is not available, but I think this still illustrates the trend.
