Private-sector payrolls increased by 155,000 in March, according to ADP Research. That was above all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The gains were driven by professional and business services, financial activities and manufacturing.
“Despite policy uncertainty and downbeat consumers, the bottom line is this: The March topline number was a good one for the economy and employers of all sizes, if not necessarily all sectors,” Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, said in a statement. . . .
The ADP report, published in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab, showed wage growth cooled. Workers who changed jobs saw a 6.5% pay increase, while those who stayed put saw a 4.6% gain. . . .
Filling shelves with imported goods (your scenario) would not create manufacturing jobs.
Honda shifting jobs out of Mexico and to the US (in anticipation of Trump polices) would.
As much as the left likes to bad mouth –>US<– industry for shifting jobs out of the US it is not about –>US<– industry doing that.
Across the world Chinese manufacturers, Japanese manufacturers, British manufacturers face the same calculus.
The calculus: “The US Fed has lowered rates so American will stop saving and start buying cars. We can borrow money form American banks pen a plant in Mexico and fill those orders.”
I always cringe a little when people use the terms leading indicators and lagging indicators. At least half they time they don’t know what they are talking about. At least half the time what they mean is
“That is just and indicator and it does not matter. What really matters is the GDP (consumption).”
That’s what I mean.
Half the time people say that (and I suspect you are part of the half)they are saying “That thing doesn’t matter. What really matters is this other thing that it’s supposed to be telling us”
(As how many plastic whistles we buy is what’s important. Jobs, savings net worth etc. are all immaterial ‘indicators.’) They have it completely backwards.
“He’s unemployed, he has a negative net worth but who cares? All I care about is if that impacts how many plastic whistles he buys” <— This is 100% totally completely backwards.
“He has a job, he is very wealthy and he is adding to his wealth. the number of plastic whistles he buys is a convenient short-cut incicator of those things” <— this is frontwards
Let me clarify. They aren’t filling their shelves with the imported stuff they are filling their shelves with the stuff they make from the imported pieces.
Could they do it that fast? I guess if there are companies that already have production facilities here and abroad it would be easy to sift production here.
But I am thinking most about car manufacturers who built cars here with foreign parts. I have to imagine they are pushing as hard as they can to bring in the foreign parts and build cars now.
Here according to MS Copilot (sometimes accurate) is a list of Honda Finishing Plants.
Honda reads the newspaper, crunches the numbers and says
“I predict we are gonna sell more 2025 autos from the first set of plants. Better hire now so we have them.”
United States:
Marysville Auto Plant (Ohio): Produces the Honda Accord and Acura models.
East Liberty Auto Plant (Ohio): Produces the Honda CR-V and Acura SUVs.
Honda Manufacturing of Alabama (Lincoln, Alabama): Produces the Honda Odyssey, Pilot, Passport, and Ridgeline.
Honda Manufacturing of Indiana (Greensburg, Indiana): Produces the Honda Civic and CR-V.
Mexico:
Honda Celaya Plant (Guanajuato): Produces the Honda HR-V.
