The fact is,
we cannot be sure whether big tariff packages are net inflationary
or net deflationary.
(There are too few examples, and those we have indicate they tend to be deflationary.)
Which means we should start taking both possibilities into account and placing less trust in those who are quite sure inflation will be the result.
Guy at Ernst & Young says these are the noteworthy categories.
Iâll save some time and trust he is right.
CPI +0.1%
** Core +0.1%**
_____đ˛Food +0.3%
_____â˝ď¸Energy -1.0%
Core goods +0%
_____đNew -0.3%
_____đUsed -0.5%
_____đApparel -0.4%
Core services +0.2%
Shelter +0.3%
_____đĄRent +0.2%
_____đ OER +0.3%
_____đ¨Hotel -0.1%
Med 0.2%
Air -2.7%
.
.
.
Hmm Goods inflation 0%
Apparel (heavily imported) -0.4%.
Whatever is happening, good or bad,
it does NOT appear to be tariff-driven inflation.
More good news all around.
Yes, inflation was 0.1% in May
If we start the count May1, which would be unusual, it works to an annual rate of 1.21%.
Hypothetical Donald Trump Argument:
â1.21% is well below the Fedâs target rate of 2%. The Fed should cut rates. In fact too-late Jerome Powell is already too late again.â
Hypothetical Fed Rebuttal:
âWell, that is only 1-month of data. If we start the count Jan 1, which would be more normal, it looks like we are in for 2.4% inflation this year.â
In the auction industry, every penny counts.
It seems that the libs who were whining that Trump didnât perform some Jedi magic and immediately fix Bidenâs debacle, are not happy with good news.
They havenât cried about eggs in a while either, huh? 
Well, with Israel striking Iranâs nuclear faciliteis,
oil just surged 13%.
The Fed focuses on core inflation (which excludes oil and other âbouncyâ items") but I will guess, that at no point in the immediate future will the Fed declare
âPrices are down itâs time to cut rates.â
