Interesting article in how Chinese overplayed their hand

First off I want to call on @Gaius, I believe he predicted this few months ago when we last talked about trade war with China, and how nationalist are overplaying their role within the goverment.

A growing trade war with the United States is causing rifts within China’s Communist Party, with some critics saying that an overly nationalistic Chinese stance may have hardened the U.S. position, according to four sources close to the government.

The propaganda they used on it’s people to solidified their power doesn’t play to well around the globe…specially with Southeast Asia and Japan and even here in America,

But IMO China is still making a mistake if they think it was propaganda at home that had effected American attitude towards China…it was decay of our industrial might and rot from our urban areas that got American attention.

Wang, who was the architect of the “China Dream”, Xi’s vision for China to become a strong and prosperous nation, has been taken to task by the Chinese leader for crafting an excessively nationalistic image for the country, which has only provoked the United States, the sources said.

“He’s in trouble for mishandling the propaganda and hyping up China too much,” said one of the sources, who has ties to China’s leadership and propaganda system.

So from my take China still doesn’t “get it”…and thus why they will continue to fail.

Maybe it culture thing with em…or maybe a dream they will become. But without civil liberties and freedom that comes with it they will never understand the inter workings of America.

Again I’m calling out @Gaius. I’m interesting in his take on all this.

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I also have to laugh at this…when I predicted that American currency will start leaving China forum bozo’s…I mean libs laugh.

Well it seems once again I get the last laugh.

“Some of the currency fall is money leaving China,” Kudlow, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “If money leaves China, and the currency could be a leading indicator, they’re going to be in a heap of trouble.”

So with all education of our so-called intellectual libs didn’t do one bit of good.

I think they wasted their money. Their parents should have saved there educational fund for their own retirement. :wink:

China is not a 3rd world economy anymore, they should open up their markets for their own sake

A weaker Chinese currency makes their products cheaper to other countries.

Yep and there exports are still going strong.

A good portion of that could be due to the pull-forward effect.

Companies building their import stock cheaper now before tariffs hit in full.

Some economists have been attributing last quarters GDP numbers in part to that.

I’m seeing up tic in Chinese made tools, specially Grizzly tools.

Meanwhile tools made elsewhere remain stable.

Did you think trump’s tariffs would have no impact?

Doesn’t impact me at all.

I don’t recall asking if it impacted you. But I guess you had to come up with some way to deflect from trump’s stupid-ass policies.

Well, one of the kings about the tariffs is that I order to minimize the effects early on, there are tariffs on electronics parts but not on finished goods.

This makes it more expensive to ship parts here and assemble… it actually encourages finished manufacturing to happen inside of China.

Go figure.

"The overarching view is that China’s current stance has been too hard-line and the leadership has clearly misjudged the situation."

That view contrasts with the thinking at the beginning of the year of many Chinese academics who had touted China’s ability to withstand the trade row in the face of Trump’s perceived political weakness at home.

The Readers Digest version is that Trump’s tariffs are working. There’s pain being felt in China and those feeling it are now having second opinions of how the trade war is being handled. Once again Mr. President, your policies appear to be working. Nice job.

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This is the correct take away.

This is how we should see the votes fall in November.

HI Conan

Thanks for the opportunity.

The short version is that
Nationalism (the bad type) is always a significant political wing of the Chinese spectrum much the way the religious right, the fiscal conservatives the PC left, the RINOs etc. are permanent fixtures in this country.

To rule China means (at least) building a coalition getting a nod of approval from at least two of those wings.
To a degree,

  • and in a ham-handed fashion,
  • and recalling the fact that the COVID virus has hurt the Chinese economies in several ways
    the Trump administration can claim a degree of success in US-China relations. Trump administration success is likely to have momentum that will continue paying dividends for at least a few years.

Longer version:
The bad guy nationalist wing within China is obviously winning a big victory in Hong Kong, but in light of the COVID virus, and the Trump administration, the “market reform” wing has now accepted that the nationalist wing is costing them money and thus we are beginning to see signs that the “market reform wing is trying to contain the nationalist wing.

That said, containing the nationalist wing has limits. There is only so much the market reform wing can do. China has roughly four major political camps. No camp has enough popularity to rule alone.

  • To lead the GOP, one needs non-opposition from at least two of its parts
    (such as the religious conservatives and the fiscal conservatives.)
  • To lead the CCP, one needs non-opposition from at least two of its parts, typically its ruling coalition will have a dominant partner and a junior partner.

Right now Xi Jinping rules with the “market reform” wing as the major partner
and the nationalist wing as the minor one. If the nationalist wing ever becomes the major political force in China it would be very very bad for the world.

But totally relacing the nationalist wing with another wing would not be an easy process.
Throwing out one wing, from halls of power, and replacing them with another wing is never simple, and Xi Jinping is particularly UNsuited for the job.

Hemming in the nationalists is something the Chinese should do. It would be a good thing.
I wish them success in this endeavor. We all should. But realistically the nationalist wing is not going to disappear. And (simply) taking the nationalist out of the ruling coalition would probably require something as significant as Tiananmen or Beijing Spring or Hundred Flowers or Great Leap etc… China always has another (presumably peaceful) revolution in it. The Chinese government has been playing whack-a-mole for 2,000 years and that mole keeps coming back. But predicting when and where it will pop up next is not something anyone can do very well.

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Wow a blast from the past.

Interesting how you mention nationalist is costing marking reformers…I need to think little more about that. But as you said Xi is juggling those two. I think he’s doing it quite successfully IMO. It’s like having his cake and eat it too.

But I don’t think nationalist is going to tolerate having partial role forever…at some point they’re going to want to use that increased powers they’re accumulating.

Again good yo see you. You always offer up interesting perspectives on China…one that doesn’t get discussed enough. But I have feeling that’s all going to changing in coming years. We sweep it under the rug too long.

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Thanks Conan, and yes, it is a blast from the past. Lol.

I don’t recall when the HK funeral march began, but it is exactly precisely the type of thing the nationalists in China have at the top of their list.

Economic sanctions in response hits the market reform wing right in the bank account. They don’t like that.

I have not kept very active in my China watching hobby. But I feel secure that if the major political xamps had changed, (if my perspective had become seriously outdated) I would have noticed.

The market reformers want money.

The nationalists want HK, and Taiwan and a host if islands, and the strait of Malacca, and a submarine heavy blue water navy etc. etc…

The democracy reformers want freedom.

The Maoists want a Maoists utopia beginning with hiving China’s 60-70 percent peasantry the same economic and educational opportunities the city-dwellers have, which sounds great to anyone, but that is a VERY tall order.

They are shipping so much stuff to the USA they have created a worldwide shipping container shortage.