No duh…
maybe, maybe not
Meaning?
depends on the situation on the ground. If Ukraine takes Crimea, it’s most likely Putin will be deposed and the entire effort will collapse along with the Russian supported separatists.
Well sure…best case example.
entirely plausible. To take Crimea all they have to do is destroy the Kirch Bridge, Cut the Russian LOCS in the south, and get ATACMS
Yup- and if Russia can find to keep supplies flowing, Crimea has a very narrow entrance that could be a serious bottleneck for moving Ukrainian troops into it. We shall see.
Russia seems in no great hurry to end the war, and China would love to see the war continue. The war is rapidly exhausting weapons stockpiles for the US and its allies. The self-imposed sanctions contributing to inflation and recession in western economies. The growingly unpopular war could well result in changes in the governments in western countries and further weaken support for NATO.
Ironically Washington instigated the war to weaken Russia and to achieve regime change in Moscow, but instead NATO is increasingly likely to see those outcomes.
how will it keep supplies running with the LOCS cut and no kirch bridge? By sea is not really feasable with drones and ATACMS. Air is deffinately out. Ukraine doesn’t even have to invade it. Cut the supplies and wait, just like Kherson.
more comic genius!
Not so sure- the Kerch Strait is pretty small. But I lack a full understanding of the logistics there.
Another win for China and North Korea:
Two defense officials said that the Pentagon had requested U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) to send 155mm howitzer artillery ammunition rounds that would likely be sent to Ukraine after first transferring through Germany.
The U.S. is “looking under every rock” for munitions, an official told Fox News.
https://news.yahoo.com/us-diverts-weapons-south-korea-181058015.htm
The longer the war lasts, the better things look in Beijing.
Does that help to explain support for the war in Washington?
really> seems an odd win since NK already sent a bunch of artillery shells to Russia. And even after that Russia had to put out an order to conserve ammo.
It looks like Blinken is starting to put out some possible ideas for a settlement that includes new borders. Here is an excerpt from an article that discusses his comments from the Washington Post last week:
Crimea is a particular point of discussion. There is a widespread view in Washington and Kyiv that regaining Crimea by military force may be impossible. Any Ukrainian military advances this year in Zaporizhzhia oblast, the land bridge that connects Crimea and Russia, could threaten Russian control.
But an all-out Ukrainian campaign to seize the Crimean Peninsula is unrealistic, many US and Ukrainian officials believe. That’s partly because Putin has indicated that an assault on Crimea would be a tripwire for nuclear escalation.
http://www.envirosagainstwar.org/2023/01/30/blinken-overseas-to-oversee-a-needless-war/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/01/24/blinken-ponders-post-ukraine-war-order/
Admitting that Ukraine is not able to advance into Crimea a small step in the right direction.
I personally am open to a settlement that involves Crimea in exchange for leaving the rest of Ukraine and making sure Ukraine is protected in perpetuity by US/Europe.
But I’d like to see how far Ukraine gets this year before having to come to that agreement.
I personally hate it, but if the Ukranians are willing to settle on it, I’d support it.
Yup…
and sheesh how pointless if thats where we end up. Essentially going back to pre-Feb 22 borders with hundreds of thousands dead…for absolutely no reason.
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I would not be surprised if the Russian Army will be at the Polish border by then, and Zelensky will be enjoying his millions in exile. Other Ukrainian men will not be so lucky.
This prediction is based on the Russian’s kick ass performance thus far?
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2022 calling!
