Implications of Sunday's bombing in Istanbul

Sunday’s apparent terrorist attack on a crowded pedestrian street in Istanbul has killed at least six people and injured dozens more, some critically. Here is a reported video of the explosion; the camera is about 1000 feet away from the explosion based on the time delay between the flash and the sound of the blast.

The response from Turkey has been to arrest a Syrian woman for planting the bomb along with 21 others. The government is blaming the Kurdish PKK (Kurdish Workers’ Party) and YPG (People’s Defense Units) for the attack.

The US has condemned the attack, but Turkey says that the US is complicit. The US has been allied with the YPG in Syria, and Kurdish and Turkish troops have repeatedly clashed in northern Syria and Iraq near the Turkish border.

At the same time, the US has joined Turkey in labeling the PKK as a terrorist organization. The difference is that Turkey believes that the YPG and PKK are essentially the same organization, while the US treats them as separate organizations.

Likely effects of the attack:

  1. Escalation of conflict between US-backed Kurdish forces and the Turkish army in Syria.

  2. Turkey will take a harder line on Finland and Sweden membership in NATO. Turkey has made the extradition of Kurds allegedly affiliated with the PKK/YPG as a condition of NATO membership.

  3. Turkey is likely to further distance itself from the US and EU and may move towards formal membership in BRICS.