Home sales drop 4.3% in a month, Homes for sale inventory rising fast, Mortgage rates up, Lumber prices crashing, Building Material stores shedding inventory

From CNBC: March home sales drop

Sales of previously owned homes dropped 4.3% in March compared with February, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.19 million units, according to the National Association of Realtors. Sales were 3.7% lower than in March 2023. This came after a big jump in sales in February. . . .

Homes for sale inventory rising

Homes for sale listings
up 20, 30 even 50% Y-o-Y in some states

Marketwatch (WSJ): Mortgage interest rates hit a local high. “Typical” home now requires $2,858 mortgage payment, plus taxes, insurance and HOA


No one is buying lumber & the price is still falling hard

Building material stores are not even bothering to keep building materials in stock

Finally, the millennials can stop bitching about the rising cost of home ownership, but will they?

Soon, but not yet.
Home prices gotta come down a wee bit more before the traditional rent vs buy equilibrium is restored.

Below is last month’s chart

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Tell me more about these states with -26%, -5%, etc.?

Good news.

Not sure how you got that conclusion from the OP.

here a chart of new housing.

seems pretty flat to me



Housing starts data means many things.
(Nobody wants to sell a house in a neighborhood that has too much competition but) generally, there are more housing starts when home prices are likely to rise.
(The pros know when and where to build.)

That being the case, I am not sure how you get “flat” from the chart.
Same chart w/ my notations added:

  • Blue line dropped this month and dropped ~25% total from the local high.

  • Red line dropped this month and dropped ~33% total from the high.

same amount as in 2021.


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looks as if the red line is trending upward since cratering.


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The most interesting data from yesterday’s report was not that units sold dropped 4.3% M-o-M.

It was how bifurcated the market has become.
Measured in # units sold, all categories of homes under $500k dropped at least 8%,
but homes over $1m increased (in sales volume) 14%.

Good news for some!

looks like the well off are doing well, the rest. yikes.

thanks for the interesting bar graph.


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@biggestal99 It’s almost midnight.
I hope you get to read this before then.

I noticed something about our posts today

At some point we just run out of buyers who can afford to spend around $400,000 for a house.

$400,000 is definitely not first-time buyer territory

  • $80,000 down, $20,000-$40,000 closing costs
  • Inclusive Monthly pymnt = $2,850 s ya need ~$100k annual income to qualify.

That said, one of the bigger problems is that these days starter homes all seem to come with crappy schools and crappy crime rates. I don’t often mix politics and economics, but in this case it’s unavoidable. Affordable homes are still typically out there, but the neighborhoods and school have gone to hell.


The reality is that in any decent town in NJ, with a decent school, one is going to spend that $400,000 or more. And in the better towns those same properties are going for $700,000-$1,000,000.

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