I did not mean to quote it out of context.
You mentioned that I focuses on that number a lot.
I was simply explaining why I focused on that number a lot (mentioned it twice)
Importantly
Your assertion is incorrect.
the number of people unemployed 15-26 weeks
is the number of people unemployed 15-26 weeks
it has nothing to do with their age (in years)
It is a statistic showing the length of time (in weeks) they have been unemployed.
These are not people of a certain age
These are people of any age who became unemployed 15-26 weeks ago.
These are people of any age who had a job last summer, lost it last fall and have been unemployed ever since.
These are people who lost a job and try as they might have been unable to find one.
Meanwhile when the economy starts to surge companies hire formal temps.
When the economy starts to fail companies stop using formal temps.
For as long as the gov’t has kept records on temp services all the way back to the pre-Internet days, before Bill Clinton, back to the days when the first millennial was born . . . . when the trend in hiring temps drops enough, recession follows almost immediately.
Thanks Gaius. I misread what you had posted. I thought you had said the unemployment rate for 15-26 jumped 20%. Which is false. But the number of unemployed 15-26 did increase by 20%. Sorry. A slight misunderstanding. That being said, when we’re talking about 858,000 people in this country, a rise like that may be a blip. I’m interested in the trend. I wonder if that can be pulled up.
Interesting graph. But I wonder if in the past that matched job openings. Because we’re at essentially full employment right now. Things post covid have gotten weird.
So far we have lucked out and what is being cut is hours, not jobs, but hours have been cut hard.
Limited data precludes us from knowing for sure if this means recession is coming but that is a reasonable hypothesis even without the other data on this thread
Thanks for contributing. I appreciate Gaius’ information. Helps me learn and think about things and think about scenarios for the economy. What’s your contribution?
Interesting. It’s hard for me to feel bad about a bottoming of unemployment knowing it might have to go up afterwards. Things are still a little weird and I’m not sure the normal cycles apply. With inflation what it is and massive rate hikes, we shouldn’t still be at full employment and GDP growth. I’m going to be really curious as to how 2nd quarter GDP comes out. We won’t know till July but Atlanta(who I hated years ago when they hadn’t quite adjusted their formula) has been pretty good. I’m fine with a 2% growth:
I started this thread. I’ve contributed with links and articles. I’ve started one of the few threads on this forum that isn’t just partisan bitching. Looking for some support from the mods.
Lol
Not useless, but it does not mean what people think and in fact its only truly good use is to compare period 1 to period 2 (even that with caveats sometimes )
