Non-immigrants in America lost 881,000 jobs year-over-year in Feb
as the overall unemployment level ticked up slightly to 3.9%
That according to the latest monthly jobs report which was released by BLS this morning.
The total M-o-M addition of 275,000 jobs (seasonally adjusted) is taken as a sign of economic strength and the stock market rising when the news was released.
The report also stated that
Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers increased by 174,000 to 1.7 million in February. The number of people on temporary layoff was little changed at 827,000. . . .
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more), at 1.2 million, was little changed in February.
Those number are of special concern.
While the overall level is not bad, as is often the case in economics the rate-of-change is more important for economic forecasting than the actual level. (Breaking up through the zero line often predicts a trend that will continue.)
Permanent job losers in historical context.
Long-term unemployed in historical context
“the change for January was revised down by 124,000, from +353,000 to +229,000. With these revisions, employment in December and January combined is 167,000 lower than previously reported.4 hours ago”
The fake news pushes the lies and barely mentions the revisions.
If Biden is reelected they will raise gas prices again, but much more… They only want them down for the election… Thus sucking up to the Venezuelan dictator…
How many months/quarters is a trend?
Hmm I think the magic number is two quarters (six months)
The reason I ask is that the US keeps losing full-time jobs and I am not sure if it constitutes a trend yet or not.
Four months in a row the US has lost full-time jobs.
Regardless of foreign-born or native-born, full-time jobs are disappearing.
Sooner or later this becomes a trend
Date_____Monthly full-time jobs_____Loss/Gain
Jun-23 __134,787 (High water mark)
Nov-23 __134,727
Dec-23 __133,196 __________________1.53 million full-time jobs lost
Jan-24 __133,133 __________________60,000 full-time jobs lost
Feb-24 __132,946 __________________190,000 full-time jobs lost
Total 1.78 million full-time jobs lost
.
.
.
Could be the economy is in decline.
Could be that a flood of people willing to work part-time have entered the country.
Guy on Twitter says only 11 of the past 13 revisions have been downward.
I wonder how much of this is based one age rather than country of origin. Among those born inn the US we are seeing the retirements in the baby boom generation that are driving the number of native-born workers down. Immigrants as a whole tend to be younger and hence more likely to be in the labor force.
Looking at the foreign born graph, how many of those people are legal immigrants and how many are not?
That’s an important question, but one that is difficult to answer with precision.
the available information is old and relies on gov’t estimates
In FY 2022 (immediate post COVID) there were1,028,349 newly-added legal permanent residents.
this includes
- kids,
- retired grandmas reuniting with immigrant families
- non-working spouses (mail order brides etc.)
- preciously illegal entrants whose status became legalized
- and doctors an engineers coming here because our school system is incapable of producing enough STEM graduates.
Given a 66% “labor force participation rate” (from a recent bls.gov report)
that works out to 55,600 legal immigrants getting legal jobs each month,
55,600 legal immigrants getting legal jobs each month, is a small portion of the 275,000 jobs per month “taken by” all immigrants each month. However, as I mentioned, that is a rough figure based on oldish numbers and some government estimates.
Given the scope of southern border crossings, the 220,000 remaining figure seems to have face validity. But on the other hand, I wonder who is reporting these figures? Are employers reporting that they hire people illegally because that puts the employer at risk. I sincerely doubt those without documentation are making an effort to be counted.
On the survey, employers are not required to disclose (they are not even asked) if the employees are working legally are illegally. Yes, presumably they would lie but we have no reason to believe the “degree of lying” or whatever we want to call it, would change much from time to time.
