First look at the 2024 United States Senate picture (12/22)

First, Republican incumbents.


Barrasso, John (R-WY)
Blackburn, Marsha (R-TN)
Braun, Mike (R-IN)
Cramer, Kevin (R-ND)
Cruz, Ted (R-TX)
Fischer, Deb (R-NE)
Hawley, Josh (R-MO)
Romney, Mitt (R-UT)
Scott, Rick (R-FL)
Wicker, Roger F. (R-MS)

Even if any incumbents retire, I consider all 10 seats to be SAFE Republican. In other words, Republicans are all but assured of not LOSING any seats this cycle.


King, Angus S., Jr. (I-ME)
Sanders, Bernard (I-VT)
Sinema, Kyrsten (D-AZ)

If King runs, SAFE Independent. If King retires, LEAN Democrat. If Sanders runs, SAFE Independent. If Sanders retires/runs for President, SAFE Democrat.

As for Sinema, right now, in the absence of any candidate information for either the Republican or Democratic primaries, I will start this race off as PURE TOSSUP. IF the Republicans don’t come up with a fruitcake, they should benefit from the split between Sinema and the Democratic nominee.


Baldwin, Tammy (D-WI) - Lean Democrat
Brown, Sherrod (D-OH) - Tossup
Cantwell, Maria (D-WA) - Safe Democrat
Cardin, Benjamin L. (D-MD) - Safe Democrat
Carper, Thomas R. (D-DE) - Safe Democrat
Casey, Robert P., Jr. (D-PA) - Lean Democrat
Feinstein, Dianne (D-CA) - I believe Feinstein will retire, but Safe Democrat regardless
Gillibrand, Kirsten E. (D-NY) - Safe Democrat
Heinrich, Martin (D-NM) - Safe Democrat
Hirono, Mazie K. (D-HI) - Safe Democrat
Kaine, Tim (D-VA) - Likely Democrat
Klobuchar, Amy (D-MN) - Safe Democrat
Manchin, Joe, III (D-WV) - Likely Republican
Menendez, Robert (D-NJ) - Safe Democrat
Murphy, Christopher (D-CT) - Safe Democrat
Rosen, Jacky (D-NV) - Lean Democrat
Stabenow, Debbie (D-MI) - Safe Democrat
Tester, Jon (D-MT) - Likely Republican (Safe Republican if Tester retires)
Warren, Elizabeth (D-MA) - Safe Democrat
Whitehouse, Sheldon (D-RI) - Safe Democrat

Republicans don’t have to worry about losing any seats and can concentrate on picking up seats.

They will likely pick up Montana and West Virginia, giving them control of the Senate. I think Ohio is very winnable and possibly Wisconsin. Republicans have a possibility of redeeming themselves in Nevada and an outside shot in Pennsylvania. Arizona is a good possibility if Republicans get a decent nominee and Sinema and the Democratic nominee split the Democratic vote.

But I think it is very likely Republicans will control the Senate as a result of 2024.

Beyond simple bare control, 51 to 49, much is up to Republicans themselves and it will be entirely their own fault if they do not capitalize on this favorable cycle, just as it was entirely their own fault they crashed and burned in 2022. Nominate good candidates and they could potentially have 53 to 47 or even 54 to 46. Nominate Oz’s, Masters’ and Walker’s and they will be at the bare 51 to 49.


Romney is a Republican? Well, I’ll be! :wink:

Not much of one.

Debbie Stabenow is retiring.

Pending emergence of candidates, I will change Michigan from Safe Democrat to Likely Democrat.

I am not particularly hopeful though. Michigan has slid left in recent years.

Yeah- no doubt in my mind that the Senate will move back into the GOP’s hands in 24. The GOP is favored right now to take the Senate, keep the House and win the presidency with DeSantis. It could be a very big year the Repubs.

As of December 2023, be Wisconsin GOP has yet to scare up anyone to run against Tammy Baldwin for Senate in 2024. So they may be stuck having to run Fake Sheriff David Clarke :joy:

Bob Casey has latched on to his key to victory. Blaming the market for Biden policy failures.

Listen to how he explains “shrinkflation” in such derisive terms.

Polls are closing in on Casey.

yeah the polls “only” have casey up 5%.

casey will beat mccormick in November.


Casey is used to winning by twice that and the more recent polls are 4% and less. Close to the margin of error.

Fact is that Casey has done nothing and Fetterman is rather grandly pointing this out.

McCormick is a vet. Casey is a silver spoon wannabe.

The shrinkflation ad was hilariously inept.


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68-32 Reps.

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This should be repeated.

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The PA senate race just got much tighter and Casey silence is really hurting him.

Yet Mr. Casey and his campaign remained noticeably silent Friday. While prominent Pennsylvania Democrats such as U.S. Sen. John Fetterman and Gov. Josh Shapiro issued statements of support for Mr. Biden — with Mr. Fetterman urging Democrats and observers to “chill the [expletive] out” — Mr. Casey as of Friday afternoon hadn’t publicly commented on the debate. His campaign did not respond to multiple messages seeking comment.

Mr. McCormick told the Post-Gazette, “I don’t know how you could sit there — forget party — as an American and watch President Biden’s performance and not be deeply troubled. It was very sad. … Every American is trying to make sense of that. Sen. Casey needs to say whether he thinks President Biden’s the guy to lead America into the future.”

Mr. McCormick held his hand up and crossed two fingers. “Sen. Casey and President Biden are like this. They call each other their best friends … and I think Sen. Casey should speak out.”


CHIPS act did nothing for PA.

‘Casey’s Cartel’: NRSC Exposes How Democrat Bob Casey’s Family Has Engaged in ‘Cynical Self-Dealing,’ ‘Graft’

Interestingly Casey ads have been accusing McCormick of this.

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of course they are, accuse them of what we’re doing is the democrat playbook.

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