Federal Reserve Beige Book: Nine of the Nation's 12 districts are in decline or stagnation

Economy
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Dividing the US by geographic area (rather than population or economic activity) is of limited value. It probably made sense once though, and the Fed still does it that way in its all-important “Beige Book.”

Released Today

National Summary
Overall Economic Activity

A majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period. Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline. . . . nearly all Districts reported decreases in manufacturing activity. . . .

. . . nearly all Districts cited one or more signs of a cooling labor market, such as larger applicant pools, lower turnover rates, more selective hiring by firms

Highlights by Federal Reserve District

Boston
Economic activity was down slightly. . . .

New York
Regional economic activity declined slightly. . . .

Philadelphia
Business activity held steady during the current Beige Book period—after falling for most of 2023. . . .

St. Louis
Economic activity has remained unchanged . . .

Minneapolis
District economic activity was down slightly. . . .

Kansas City
Economic activity in the Tenth District declined moderately. Consumer spending fell . . .

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Similarly from late November

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(Paywall)

Duplicated by same company here for free

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Here is the map provided by Business Insider (red and pink mean economic decline)

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fourth-quarter of 2023 real personal consumption expenditures growth of 2.8%

4q2023 GDP expected to come in at 1.5% growth.

Allan

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that doesnt sound like a recession to me.

Allan

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we shall see next Thursday.

Allan

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See what on Thursday?

You and I concur on this statement (from another thread)

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Oh, I am big on picking and choosing which indicator I consider meaningful for which purpose. (Wages, or incomes or unemployment or wages of the bottom 40%, or number of bankruptcy filings, etc…)

But when the educated experts do it they, combine 10 of them into a weighted index called the “Conference Board Leading Economic Index.” (It’s pretty widely-known. You can google it if you doubt me.)

As of its most recent reading it was down 20 consecutive months and just hit its lowest reading since May 2020 (beginning of COVID.)

How often does that happen?

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GDP.

and the initial reading for 4q2023 GDP.

and the answer is………

3.3% growth in GDP lead by consumer spending.

from the BEA

“ The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, state and local government spending, nonresidential fixed investment, federal government spending, private inventory investment, and residential fixed investment (table 2). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.”

so a mostly positive story.

Allan

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also from the BEA

Within exports, both goods (led by petroleum) and services (led by financial services) increased

we are exporting the hell out of oil. generating tons of cash for the economy.

Allan