Very little change in the House of Representatives since early August. Republicans have 215 Safe, Likely, Lean seats about 24 seats are considered tossup. Republicans need to win only 3 of those 24 seats, while Democrats would need to win 22. Barring anything major, Republicans should win control.
Here are the critical Senate contests:
Wisconsin (Sabato Lean R, Cook Tossup) - The contest has shifted decidedly in Johnson’s favor in recent weeks, due to Barnes very weak stance on law enforcement. Right now, I will hold this race for Johnson, but only by the slimmest of margins. R-HOLD.
Georgia (Sabato Tossup, Cook Tossup) - Walker closed up the race in recent weeks, but overall, Warnock continues to prevail by a razor thin margin. I think Walker has a chance to win this race, particularly if Warnock stumbles late, but for now I will keep this, D-HOLD.
Nevada (Sabato Tossup, Cook Tossup) - This has been a tossup from the beginning. Laxalt has shown the lead in the last few weeks, but undecideds remain very high in this contest. This is a straight up TOSSUP.
North Carolina (Sabato Lean R, Cook Lean R) - I suspect this contest is not as close as the polls would indicate. They were off significantly in the 2020 Senate election. I suspect Budd has a comfortable lead. R-HOLD.
Ohio (Sabato Lean R, Cook Lean R) - By the polls, this contest appears to be a tossup. I think Vance still has the smallest of advantage and I will hold this R-HOLD.
Florida (Sabato Likely R, Cook Lean R) - Rubio should win this contest. But there is a wildcard factor, Hurricane Ian, which has struck and done devasting damage in what is literally the reddest part of Florida. If Demmings pulls off the upset, give the assist to Ian. However, I continue to keep this as R-HOLD.
Arizona - (Sabato Lean D, Cook Lean D) - Stick a fork in Masters, he is done. D-HOLD.
New Hampshire - (Sabato Lean D, Cook Lean D) - Bolduc was dead on nomination. D-HOLD.
Pennsylvania - (Sabato Lean D, Cook Lean D) - Fetterman has had difficulties lately, no doubt about that. A decent Republican candidate would likely be winning this race and by a significant margin. Unfortunately, they have Mehmet Oz. You can’t exploit the opposition’s weak candidate when your candidate is even weaker. D-GAIN.
Colorado and Utah are both considered “in-play” by both Sabato and Cook, however I think the odds of either switching are low enough to discard both States from consideration.
The remaining States are considered SAFE by both Sabato and Cook.
Right now, Democrats keep the Senate, 50 to 49 on the pickup in Pennsylvania. But Nevada will decide if the Democrats get an outright majority or have to keep depending on Vice President Harris.
Bottom line is we will have a divided Congress.
(Note: There is still a small Republican window to the majority, that being Walker pulling it off in Georgia, joined by Laxalt doing the same in Nevada. I would not bet the odds on it though.)
